摘要:研發投資是公司成長與競爭力的關鍵。正如同其他策略投資決策一樣,研發支出是維繫企業長期生存的必要條件。然而,除了購併與合併外,公司的策略投資決策在財務有關的學術研究上相對而官被忽略,故其值得探討的議題與研究也較多。而且,有關購併與合併研究所獲得的結論,是否適用於公司其他同樣重要的投資決策(例如研發投資), 也是值得懷疑。本計畫的目的即在於探討公司的研發投資決策,因該項決策為公司重要的策略投資決策,因此本計畫所探討的議題為公司理財領域學術研究上重要的議題。
本計畫為三年期的計畫,包含三篇論文,每年將探討一個議題,均與公司的研發支出決策有關。第一篇論文探討競爭互動在決定公司研發投資對財務分析師盈餘預期的影響上所扮演的角色。研發投資透過成本降低與產品差異化,使企業獲得競爭上的優勢。當廠商宣告研發投資時,傳達給市場的訊息是其盈餘可能增加,因此財務分析師將使用該宣告所包含的資訊,向上調整其未來盈餘的預測。然而,真正的影響效果端視競爭對手如何回應而定。若同業競爭廠商對宣告廠商的研發投資不作任何反應,則研發投資對宣告廠商的利潤將有正面的影響效果,而對競爭對手將有不利的影響。因此,當競爭處於策略替代時,財務分析師由研發投資宣告所釋放的訊息,將向上調整其對宣告廠商盈餘的預測,而向下調整其對競爭對手盈餘的預測。反之,同業競爭廠商對宣告廠商的研發投資也可能不會無任何反應,蓋因其可能也採取相同策略增加研發投資。在此種情況下,研發投資對宣告廠商的利潤影響將不明確。因此,當競爭處於策略互補時,財務分析師由研發投責宣告所釋放的訊息,其對宣告廠商盈餘預測的調整充其量為不明確,甚至可能向下調整。
本計畫的第二篇論文,係探討進入時機在決定研發投資的經濟影響效果上所扮演的角色”本論文係透過檢定兩個相對的假說來研究此一議題:先佔優勢假說與先佔劣勢假說。先佔優勢假說預測,研發投資的經濟影響效果與宣告公司的進入時機呈正相關。亦即,若宣告廠商為同業最先從事研發投資者,則其研發投資的經濟影響效果比後來宣告研發投資者更為有利。反之,先佔劣勢假說則預測,研發投資的經濟影響效果對同業最先從事研發投責者的經濟影響效果較為不利。
本計畫的最後一篇論文,係探討組織形式在解釋公司研發投資的長期股價表現與營運績效上所扮演的角色。集中經營型態的公司比多角化經營型態的公司有較佳的投資機會,且較可能從事正淨現值的投資。因此,效率投資假說預測集中經營公司的研發投資比多角化經營公司的研發投資更具有價值。然而,有另一假說則預測研發投資對多角化經營公司所創造的價值較集中經營公司來得多。資源的分配在內部資本市場比在外部資本市場更有效率。在內部融資下,公司管理階層對投資方案的選擇有絕對的控制權,而並非如在外部資本市場下係由較不具充分資訊的外部投資者來決定公司的投資決策。由於管理階層具有資訊上的優勢,其較能選擇良好的投資方案,故能提高公司的價值。管理階層可透過多角化經營來擴充其內部資本市場,因而獲得這些經濟效益。因此,內部資本市場假說預測多角化經營公司的研發投資比集中經營公司的研發投資更具有價值。
Abstract: Investments in research and development ( R&D) are often the key to firms’ growth and competitiveness. Like other strategic investment decisions, the commitment of funds for continual innovation 15 necessary to ensure the long-term vitality of a business firm. However, with the exception of intercorporate acquisitions, corporate strategic investment decisions have received relatively little attention in the finance literature. Unfortunately, the generality of findings from the one class of corporate investment decisions that has been widely studied (namely inter - corporate acquisitions ) to other classes of corporate investment decisions ( such as R&D investments ) , which are equally important and essential for the firm`s long-term growth, is unclear. In this three-year project, I will examine one investments: R&D expenditures.
The project consists of three essays which are all related to corporate R&D expenditure decision. The first essay investigates the role of competitive interaction in determining the impact of corporate R&D investments on earnings expectations by financial analysts. R&D investments permit a firm to gain a competitive advantage over other firms in the industry by becoming the low-cost producer and / or differentiating its product or service. When a firm announces R&D investments, it signals to the market that it is likely to increase its earnings, and financial analysts would use the information contained in the announcements to revise upward their forecasts of future earnings. The actual impact, however, depends on how the rivals respond. If the rivals accommodate the announcer by staying put, the expected impact on the announcer’s profits will be positive and that on the rivals` will be negative. Given the information released in the R&D investment announcements, financial analysts would revise their earnings forecasts upward for announcers and downward for rivals when the competition is in strategic substitutes. On the other hand, rivals` reaction to the investing firm`s strategy may not be accommodating, as the rivals may respond to the announcer`s R&D expenditures by adopting a matching strategy. Under this situation, the revisions in financial analysts` forecasts of future earnings for announcers would be ambiguous and might even be downward when the competition is in strategic complements.
The second essay examines the role of entry timing in explaining the economic impact of corporate R&D investments through testing the first-mover advantages hypothesis versus the first-mover disadvantages hypothesis. The first-mover advantages hypothesis predicts that the economic impact associated with R&D investments are significantly positively related to the announcing firm`s entry timing. That is, the wealth effects associated with the announcements of R&D investments are more favorable for the first announcers than for the followers. In contrast, the first-mover disadvantages hypothesis suggests the opposite result.
The last essay examines the importance of focus versus diversification in explaining the long-term abnormal stock returns and operating performance following corporate R&D investments. Focused firms tend to have better investment opportunities and invest more in positive net present value projects than diversified firms. Therefore, the efficient investment hypothesis predicts that corporate R&D investments are expected to be more worthwhile for investing firms with focused activities than for those with diversified activities. In contrast, the internal capital markets hypothesis predicts that corporate R&D investments are more worthwhile for investing firms with diversified activities than for those with focused activities. Resource allocation is more efficient in internal than in external capital markets. With an internal source of financing, the firm’s managers can exercises superior decision control over project selection, rather than leaving the firm’s investment decisions to the whims of less well-informed investors in the external capital market. When managers have superior information, they can do a better job of project selection, or "winner picking,” and thus enhance firm value. Managers can broaden their internal capital market and gain these economies by diversifying.