https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/111995
標題: | 內生隨機效應之貝氏模式於土壤污染之應用 Application of Bayesian Intrinsic Random Effect Model to Contaminated Soil |
作者: | 王偉銘 Wang, Wei-Ming |
關鍵字: | 克利金法;內生事前分配;地理統計;隨機效應模式;Intrinsic prior;Geostatistics;Kriging;Random effect model | 公開日期: | 2004 | 摘要: | 在現行的土壤整治辦法之決策過程中,只要有採樣到超過污染濃度管制值之樣本,便進行整塊土地的管制及整治。這種作法有兩個問題,第一是僅靠少數幾個採樣值便決定了整塊待整治決策的土地污染濃度,沒有考慮到估計的誤差。第二,因為樣本數小,即使誤差被考慮了,其值也可能很大。對於第二個困難,一般來說,因為受限於經費與執行困難,增加土壤採樣的個數較不可行;因此,可以利用機率的概念將統計誤差納入考量,來處理這種依賴稀少樣本推估整治單位之平均污染濃度的情況,。本研究依據地理資料的特性,考慮隨機效應模式;並引入內生之先驗分佈,來描述不同的整治單位之平均污染濃度之間的相關性,藉以評估土地的污染濃度,進而利用事後分配找出最適的整治決策。本研究並與現行之整治決策做比較,此整治決策較現行辦法穩健,不易受過高或過低的污染濃度影響,但亦可能會有小區域隱含高度污染之風險。 In the procedure of the soil remediation practice in effect, the land should be under control and remediation as long as there is one sample over polluted concentration threshold. There is two problem of this strategy. First, to decide the polluted concentration of the whole unit for remediation by a few samples will ignore the error of estimate. Because of the small amount of samples, even though the error is taken into consideration, there may be big error. Furthermore, generally, due to the limitation of budget and the difficulty of practice, it is not feasible to increase the sample size. Using the concept of probability to take statistic error in to consideration the problem of the soil remediation practice in effect can be solved. The research, in light of the characteristics of geographic information, adapt random effect model and use intrinsic prior to formulate the correlation of the average polluted concentration in different remediation units. The research can estimate effectively the average soil polluted concentration and use posterior to find the best remediation strategy. To compare the remediation strategy of this research with the recent one, the former is much more robust, because it is not affected by the polluted concentration under or over. However, there is a risk that the small area in a unit may contain high polluted concentration. |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/56181 | 其他識別: | zh-TW |
顯示於: | 流行病學與預防醫學研究所 |
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ntu-93-R91842019-1.pdf | 23.31 kB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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