https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/166123
標題: | 2004年台灣股市投資人屬性及選股邏輯之研究 | 作者: | 朱成志 Chu, Chen-Chih |
關鍵字: | 投資人行為;行為財務;選股邏輯;投資人特質;Investor Behavior;and the Logic of Security Selection;Investor Characteristic;Behavioral Finance | 公開日期: | 2004 | 摘要: | 台灣股市投資人投資行為之論文研究,大多集中於民國77、78年間,此後便少有論文研究股票投資人的投資行為。過去台股的「散戶」比重高,然而近來國內外機構法人對台股的影響力日增,股市結構也隨之改變,而佔台股交易比重最高的「散戶」投資人,或是中實戶、法人,在選股邏輯及交易型態上又會呈現何種新風貌?因此本研究想進一步了解21世紀以來台灣投資大眾的「選股邏輯」,以及探討究竟有哪些構面及選股變數,被大多數投資人所特別重視。 研究結果發現: 一、 「長線」、「消極」、「保守」屬性之投資人有非常強的傾向較重視基本面;而「短線」、「積極」、「大膽」屬性之投資人,會傾向重視技術面。 二、 根據投資人屬性五大分類,將投資人區分為32個集群後,從中再挑選出樣本數最多的前三組投資人集群(皆為「小戶」),及樣本數最多的前兩組「大戶」集群與母體進行比較。研究發現不同類型的投資人集群在選股邏輯上的確有所差異,而以「老手、長線、積極、保守、大戶」類型與「老手、短線、積極、大膽、大戶」類型,與總樣本間有較大之差異存在。 三、 本研究篩選出影響投資人選股最主要的五大變數,分別為:「C-3:財經雜誌的重要多空推薦股」、「A-13:獲利能力數據,如:每股盈餘EPS、股東權益報酬率ROE…」、「B-16 :KD、RSI、MACD等技術指標出現買進或賣出訊號」、「A-12:公司目前本益比、本淨比的相對位置」、「C-4財經節目的重要多空推薦股」等,而受加權與否的影響,會使A-12、C-4選項之名次有所更動。但可以很清楚的看出「媒體」對投資人選股有強大的影響力! 四、 人口統計變數方面,發現「年齡」、「婚姻狀況及子女」等變數會使投資人的選股邏輯有所差異,而「性別」、「職業」、「學歷」、「居住地」等變數,則沒有充分證據顯示會影響投資人之選股邏輯。 五、 操作期貨相關商品之投資人較重視「技術+籌碼面」因素,而較不注重「產業+基本面」因素。進行卡方適合度檢定後,發現操作期貨的投資人大多屬於「老手」、「短線」、「積極」與「大膽」之類型。而追隨主力的投資人較為「短線」,投資態度上相較「大膽」,其比例差距約在10%左右。 Abstract The present essay about investor behavior on Taiwan Stock Market concentrates on the surveys conducted during 1988-1989. Since then, there were relatively few researches on investor behavior. In the past, individual investors took greater proportion of trading amount on Taiwan Stock Market. Lately, however, institutional investors become having more impact on stock trading, and the structure of the stock market changes with the trend. Then, what will the logic of security selection and trading behavior of individual investors, wealthy investors and institutional investors change? What kind of new phenomenon would it be? Therefore, The research investigates further into the logic of Taiwan investors’ security selection in the 21st Century. What other factors and security selection variables would be highly regarded is also discussed. The findings of this research are: A. Long-term, Passive and conservative investors have strong intention to emphasize on fundamental analysis factors; while short-term, active and aggressive investors intend to emphasize on technical analysis factors. B. Based on five categories of investor’s attributes, we divided them into 32 groups, picked up the top-three investor groups (all individual investors), which have more samples and top-two wealthy investor groups of more samples, tried to compare those data with the population. We find that different investor types act differently. Compared to the population, in addition, ”the experienced, long-term, active, conservative and wealthy investor type” and “the experienced, short-term, active, aggressive and wealthy investor type” show greater differences. C. We pick out five main variables that affect the logic of security selection, following “C-3: stocks recommended by financial magazines”, “A-13: The company’s profitability ratios, like EPS, ROE, etc. “, “B-16: The technical indicators, such as KD, RSI, MACD”, “A-12: The company’s PE and PB ratio”, “C-4: stocks recommended by financial programs”. The grades of A-12 and C-4 would be changed according to the weighted-average method. From the findings, we conclude that “Media” show great influence on Taiwan investors’ security selection. D. As to individual characteristics variables, it showed that age, marital status and number of children have effects on the logic of security selection, however, there is no sufficient evidence to show that sex, profession and geographical location will influence the logic of security selection. Futures, and other derivatives investors pay more attention to technical analysis factors rather than fundamental analysis ones. By chi-square goodness of fit test, we find that most of these investors are experienced, shot-term, active and aggressive. And those investors who follow institutional investment strategies are relatively short-term and aggressive on the investment attitude; the difference spread is about 10%. |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/60872 | 其他識別: | zh-TW |
顯示於: | 財務金融學系 |
檔案 | 描述 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ntu-93-R90723003-1.pdf | 23.31 kB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
在 IR 系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。