https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/172854
Title: | 基於入流系集預報之水庫預放水防洪調度操作 The prerelease operational policy of reservoir for flood control based on ensemble streamflow prediction |
Authors: | 黃怡綾 Huang, Yi-Ling |
Keywords: | 預先放水;水庫操作;即時操作 | Issue Date: | 2014 | Abstract: | 氣候變遷影響造成台灣旱澇趨勢加劇,莫拉克颱風事件所帶來的超大入流量,讓水庫管理者開始思考,根據操作規線進行的防洪放水策略是否需要改善。但是台灣水庫因地形影響本身容量不大,加上氣候乾季雨量差異過大,十分依賴於颱風所帶來洪水充填水庫以供應乾季用水需求。因此在「得到更多防洪空間但增加日後缺水風險」和「忍受洪災危險為保障日後用水無慮」之間進行權衡,如何進行操作考驗著水庫操作者。一種水庫預先放水策略,可以在洪水來臨前空出部分庫容保護大壩安全並減少放水洪峰避免造成下游災害。但是因為入流預測的不確定性太大,預先放水政策很少進行討論。而現今遙測技術與計算方法估計入流精確度進步下,可以根據入流系集預報在考慮風險下進行水庫即時操作。一個簡單的平均放水量想法,根據預測入流量進行平均放水,可有效降低放水洪峰。在放水時根據下游放水安全標準進行放水,將入流歷線分成三個部分: 預先放水、洪水操作、充填蓄水。根據逐時更新的入流系集預報,每個時間點重新調整放水量確保操作時間內水庫蓄水量在最大庫容以下,且滿足在洪水結束前必須達到目標蓄水量。最後模式應用在石門水庫薔蜜颱風和曾文水庫莫拉克颱風事件,根據研究結果可有效降低放水洪峰且達到目標蓄水量。 Traditional flood control operation of reservoir during flooding season is water level-based strategy. This kind of water level-based strategy is governed on reservoir regulation schedule determining the tradeoff between flood control and conservation. Currently, reservoir operation faces new challenges resulting from the impact of climate change. In recent decades, it has caused an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events globally. The water level-based strategy has less flexibility and might cause problems. On the basis of real-time rainfall/inflow prediction, dynamic control of reservoir implies that the water level need to control based on updated information, also requires more comprehensive analysis with respect to different purposes. The main objective of this study to develop the prerelease operation policy of reservoir for flood control based on ensemble streamflow prediction. With advanced meteorological and remote-sensing technologies, rainfall and streamflow prediction several hours ahead can be achieved in an ensemble and probabilistic format. With the help of stochastic prediction, this study aims to develop an operational strategy mitigating flood control threats without increasing the water shortage risk. The operational policy need to balance the tradeoff between ‘gaining more flood buffer for dam security paying the expense of increasing shortage risk’ or ‘ensuring adequate water resources by enduring the potential of flooding damage’. A simple idea of that if release error occurred due to inflow forecast, then the next time the operator should retrieve the error by reducing release. For this concern, this study proposes a prerelease operational rule for flood control, and further examine the possible risks both of that the target release should be increased and the reservoir cannot be filled after the storm. In the end, this study investigates the efficiency of the operational strategy of Shihmen Reservoir with Typhoon Jangmi and Tsengwen Reservoir with Typhoon Morakot as case studies. |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/260838 | Rights: | 論文公開時間:2016/08/25 論文使用權限:同意有償授權(權利金給回饋本人) |
Appears in Collections: | 土木工程學系 |
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ntu-103-R01521310-1.pdf | 23.32 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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