https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/435867
標題: | Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan | 作者: | Hsiao, L.-F. Yang, M.-J. Lee, C.-S. Kuo, H.-C. Shih, D.-S. Tsai, C.-C. Wang, C.-J. Chang, L.-Y. Chen, D.Y.C. Feng, L. Hong, J.-S. Fong, C.-T. Chen, D.-S. Yeh, T.-C. Huang, C.-Y. Guo, W.-D. MING-JEN YANG HUNG-CHI KUO CHENG-SHANG LEE GWO-FONG LIN |
公開日期: | 2013 | 卷: | 506 | 起(迄)頁: | 55-68 | 來源出版物: | Journal of Hydrology | 摘要: | In this study, an ensemble meteorological modeling system is one-way coupled with a hydrological model to predict typhoon rainfall and flood responses in a mountainous watershed in Taiwan. This ensemble meteorological model framework includes perturbations of the initial conditions, data analysis methods, and physical parameterizations. The predicted rainfall from the ensemble meteorological modeling system is then used to drive a physically distributed hydrological model for flood responses in the Lanyang basin during the landfall of Typhoon Nanmadol (2011). The ensemble forecast provides track forecasts that are comparable to the operational center track forecasts and provides a more accurate rainfall forecast than a single deterministic prediction. The runoff forecast, which is driven by the ensemble rainfall prediction, can provide uncertainties for the runoff forecasts during typhoon landfall. Thus, the ensemble prediction system provides useful probability information for rainfall and runoff forecasting. © 2013 The Authors. |
URI: | https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/435867 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.046 | SDG/關鍵字: | Data analysis methods; Ensemble forecasts; Ensemble prediction systems; Meteorological modeling; Physically distributed hydrological models; Probability informations; Runoff prediction; Typhoon rainfall; Climate models; Digital storage; Floods; Hurricanes; Runoff; Watersheds; Weather forecasting; Rain; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; flood; hydrological response; mountain region; parameterization; rainfall; rainfall-runoff modeling; typhoon; watershed; weather forecasting; Taiwan |
顯示於: | 土木工程學系 |
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