https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/448857
標題: | Assessing risk perception and behavioral responses to influenza epidemics: Linking information theory to probabilistic risk modeling | 作者: | CHUNG-MIN LIAO You S.-H. |
關鍵字: | Human behavior; Influenza; Information theory; Probabilistic risk assessment; Risk perception | 公開日期: | 2014 | 卷: | 28 | 期: | 2 | 起(迄)頁: | 189-200 | 來源出版物: | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment | 摘要: | Risk perception plays a crucial role in shaping health-related behaviors in a variety of infectious disease control settings. The purpose of this study was to assess risk perception and behavioral changes in response to influenza epidemics. We present a risk perception assessment model that uses information theory linking with a probabilistic risk model to investigate the interplay between risk perception spread and health behavioral changes for an influenza outbreak. Building on human influenza data, we predicted risk perception spread as the amount of risk information. A negative feedback-based information model was used to explore whether health behavioral changes can increase the control effectiveness. Finally, a probabilistic risk assessment framework was used to predict influenza infection risk based on maximal information-derived risk perception. We found that (i) an individual who perceived more accurate knowledge of influenza can substantially increase the amount of mutual risk perception information, (ii) an intervening network over which individuals communicate overlap can be more effective in risk perception transfer, (iii) collective individual responses can increase risk perception information transferred, but may be limited by contact numbers of infectious individuals, and (iv) higher mutual risk perception information gains lower infection risk probability. We also revealed that when people increased information about the benefits of vaccination and antiviral drug used, future infections could significantly be prevented. We suggest that increasing mutual risk perception information through a negative feedback mechanism plays an important role in adaptation and mitigation behavior and policy support. ? 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
URI: | https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/448857 | ISSN: | 1436-3240 | DOI: | 10.1007/s00477-013-0739-5 | SDG/關鍵字: | Behavioral research; Controlled drug delivery; Disease control; Feedback; Health risks; Information theory; Risk assessment; Behavioral response; Control effectiveness; Human behaviors; Influenza; Influenza epidemics; Information Modeling; Negative feedback mechanism; Probabilistic Risk Assessment; Risk perception; behavioral response; health risk; human behavior; infectious disease; influenza; information; probability; risk assessment; risk perception |
顯示於: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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