https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/524316
標題: | A prediction model for the risk of incident chronic kidney disease | 作者: | KUO-LIONG CHIEN HUNG-JU LIN BAI-CHIN LEE Hsu H.-C. Lee Y.-T. MING-FONG CHEN |
公開日期: | 2010 | 出版社: | Elsevier Inc. | 卷: | 123 | 期: | 9 | 起(迄)頁: | 836-846.e2 | 來源出版物: | American Journal of Medicine | 摘要: | Background: Chronic kidney disease is a health burden for the general population. We designed a cohort study to construct prediction models for chronic kidney disease in the Chinese population. Methods: A total of 5168 participants were followed up during a median of 2.2 (interquartile range, 1.5-2.9) years, and 190 individuals (3.7%) developed chronic kidney disease, defined by a glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2. Results: We developed a point system to estimate chronic kidney disease risk at 4 years using the following variables: age (8 points), body mass index (2 points), diastolic blood pressure (2 points), and history of type 2 diabetes (1 point) and stroke (4 points) for the clinical model, with the addition of uric acid (2 points), postprandial glucose (1 point), hemoglobin A1c (1 point), and proteinuria 100 mg/dL or greater (6 points) for the biochemical model. Similar discrimination measures were found between the clinical model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.768; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.738-0.798) and the biochemical model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.734-0.796). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the clinical model was 0.667 (95% CI, 0.631-0.703) for the external validation data from community-based cohort participants. The optimal cutoff value for the clinical model was set as 7, with a sensitivity of 0.76 and a specificity of 0.66. Conclusion: We constructed a clinical point-based model to predict the 4-year incidence of chronic kidney disease. This prediction tool may help to target Chinese subjects at risk of developing chronic kidney disease. ? 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
URI: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-77956214245&doi=10.1016%2fj.amjmed.2010.05.010&partnerID=40&md5=9855ceca485da6177bcd331c84e2346f https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/524316 |
ISSN: | 0002-9343 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.amjmed.2010.05.010 | SDG/關鍵字: | glucose; hemoglobin A1c; uric acid; adult; aged; article; body mass; Chinese; chronic kidney disease; cohort analysis; confidence interval; diastolic blood pressure; external validity; female; follow up; glomerulus filtration rate; glucose blood level; hemoglobin blood level; human; incidence; major clinical study; male; non insulin dependent diabetes mellitus; prediction; priority journal; proteinuria; receiver operating characteristic; risk assessment; uric acid blood level |
顯示於: | 醫學系 |
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