https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/542355
標題: | Dependence of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast performance on typhoon characteristics and forecast track error in Taiwan | 作者: | Teng, H.-F. Done, J.M. CHENG-SHANG LEE |
公開日期: | 2020 | 卷: | 35 | 期: | 2 | 起(迄)頁: | 585-607 | 來源出版物: | Weather and Forecasting | 摘要: | This study investigates the probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) performance of typhoons that affected Taiwan during 2011–16. In this period, a total of 19 typhoons with a land warning issued by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) are analyzed. The PQPF is calculated using the ensemble precipitation forecast data from the Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX), and the verification data, verification thresholds, and typhoon characteristics are obtained from the CWB. The overall PQPF performance of TAPEX has an acceptable reliability and discrimination ability, and the higher probability error is distributed at the mountainous area of Taiwan. The PQPF performance is significantly influenced by typhoon characteristics (e.g., typhoon tracks, sizes, and forward speeds). The PQPFs for westward-moving, large, or slow typhoons have higher reliability and discrimination ability, and lower-probability error than those for northward-moving, small, or fast typhoons, except for similar reliability between fast and slow typhoons. Because northward-moving or small typhoons have larger forecast track error, and their PQPF performance is sensitive to the accuracy of the forecast track, a higher probability error occurs than that for westward-moving or large typhoons. Furthermore, because there is no difference in track error between fast and slow typhoons, the larger track spread for slow typhoons increases the rainfall forecast spread and reduces the probability error. The orientation of Taiwan’s topography and the topographic effect also influence and increase the distribution and value of probability error for northward-moving, small, or fast typhoons. In summary, forecast track characteristics are influenced by typhoon characteristics and further affect the PQPF performance. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. |
URI: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85081543048&partnerID=40&md5=e6d1b6d1e5fc255811c53351fb3518f7 https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/542355 |
DOI: | 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0175.1 | SDG/關鍵字: | Errors; Probability distributions; Rain; Reliability; Statistics; Topography; Weather forecasting; Central weather bureaux; Ensembles; Forecast verification/skill; Hurricanes/typhoons; Precipitation forecast; Quantitative precipitation forecast; Quantitative precipitation forecasting; Typhoon characteristics; Hurricanes; ensemble forecasting; error analysis; hurricane; precipitation assessment; probability; quantitative analysis; rainfall; tracking; typhoon; weather forecasting; Taiwan |
顯示於: | 大氣科學系 |
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