https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/620592
標題: | Assessment of the fatality rate and transmissibility taking account of undetected cases during an unprecedented COVID-19 surge in Taiwan | 作者: | Yuan H.-Y. Hossain M.P. TZAI-HUNG WEN MING-JIUH WANG |
公開日期: | 2022 | 出版社: | BioMed Central Ltd | 卷: | 22 | 期: | 1 | 來源出版物: | BMC Infectious Diseases | 摘要: | Background: During the COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan between May 11 and June 20, 2021, the observed fatality rate (FR) was 5.3%, higher than the global average at 2.1%. The high number of reported deaths suggests that many patients were not treated promptly or effectively. However, many unexplained deaths were subsequently identified as cases, indicating a few undetected cases, resulting in a higher estimate of FR. Whether the true FR is exceedingly high and what factors determine the detection of cases remain unknown. Estimating the true number of total infected cases (i.e. including undetected cases) can allow an accurate estimation of FR and effective reproduction number (Rt). Methods: We aimed at quantifying the time-varying FR and Rt using the estimated true numbers of cases; and, exploring the relationship between the true case number and test and trace data. After adjusting for reporting delays, we developed a model to estimate the number of undetected cases using reported deaths that were and were not previously detected. The daily FR and Rt were calculated using the true number of cases. Afterwards, a logistic regression model was used to assess the impact of daily testing and tracing data on the detection ratio of deaths. Results: The estimated true daily case number at the peak of the outbreak on May 22 was 897, which was 24.3% higher than the reported number, but the difference became less than 4% on June 9 and afterwards. After taking account of undetected cases, our estimated mean FR (4.7%) was still high but the daily rate showed a large decrease from 6.5% on May 19 to 2.8% on June 6. Rt reached a maximum value of 6.4 on May 11, compared to 6.0 estimated using the reported case number. The decreasing proportion of undetected cases was found to be associated with the increases in the ratio of the number of tests conducted to reported cases, and the proportion of cases that are contact traced before symptom onset. Conclusions: Increasing testing capacity and contact tracing coverage without delays not only improve parameter estimation by reducing hidden cases but may also reduce fatality rates. © 2022, The Author(s). |
URI: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85126799669&doi=10.1186%2fs12879-022-07190-z&partnerID=40&md5=0d62bfff155ea270e2ff42a81767c1fe https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/620592 |
ISSN: | 1471-2334 | DOI: | 10.1186/s12879-022-07190-z |
顯示於: | 醫學院附設醫院 (臺大醫院) |
在 IR 系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。