https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/638579
標題: | The emergence and successful elimination of SARS-CoV-2 dominant strains with increasing epidemic potential in Taiwan's 2021 outbreak | 作者: | Yang, Chin-Rur SUI-YUAN CHANG Gong, Yu-Nong Huang, Chung-Guei Tung, Tsung-Hua Liu, Wei Chan, Ta-Chien Hung, Kuo-Sheng Shang, Hung-Sheng Tsai, Jih-Jin CHUAN-LIANG KAO Wu, Hui-Lin Daisy Liu, Li-Yu WAN-YU LIN YI-CHIN FAN King, Chwan-Chuen CHIA-CHI KU |
關鍵字: | Bioinformatics; Community outbreak; Epicenter; Reproduction number; SARS-CoV-2; Spatio-temporal analysis; Taiwan; Transmission; Viral variants; Whole-genome sequencing | 公開日期: | 十二月-2023 | 卷: | 9 | 期: | 12 | 來源出版物: | Heliyon | 摘要: | Taiwan's experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2003 guided its development of strategies to defend against SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, which enabled the successful control of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases from 2020 through March 2021. However, in late-April 2021, the imported Alpha variant began to cause COVID-19 outbreaks at an exceptional rate in Taiwan. In this study, we aimed to determine what epidemiological conditions enabled the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant strains to become dominant and decline later during a surge in the outbreak. In conjunction with contact-tracing investigations, we used our bioinformatics software, CoVConvert and IniCoV, to analyze whole-genome sequences of 101 Taiwan Alpha strains. Univariate and multivariable regression analyses revealed the epidemiological factors associated with viral dominance. Univariate analysis showed the dominant Alpha strains were preferentially selected in the surge's epicenter (p = 0.0024) through intensive human-to-human contact and maintained their dominance for 1.5 months until the Zero-COVID Policy was implemented. Multivariable regression found that the epidemic periods (p = 0.007) and epicenter (p = 0.001) were two significant factors associated with the dominant virus strains spread in the community. These dominant virus strains emerged at the outbreak's epicenter with frequent human-to-human contact and low vaccination coverage. The Level 3 Restrictions and Zero-COVID policy successfully controlled the outbreak in the community without city lockdowns. Our integrated method can identify the epidemiological conditions for emerging dominant virus with increasing epidemiological potential and support decision makers in rapidly containing outbreaks using public health measures that target fast-spreading virus strains. |
URI: | https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/638579 | ISSN: | 2405-8440 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e22436 |
顯示於: | 流行病學與預防醫學研究所 |
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