https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/78680
標題: | Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies | 作者: | Cheng, Ching-Tsung Lo, Shang-Lien Lin, Tyrone T. |
公開日期: | 2011 | 起(迄)頁: | 5929-5938 | 來源出版物: | Energy Policy | 摘要: | The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. |
URI: | https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-80052749820&origin=resultslist&sort=plf-f&cite=2-s2.0-80052749820&src=s&imp=t&sid=2b40b8795d203b9e25419e7e4c011e59&sot=cite&sdt=a&sl=0 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.048 | SDG/關鍵字: | Binomial models; Binomial tree; Capital intensive investment; Cleaner energy; Compound option model; Decision problems; Electricity demands; Energy development; Energy industry; Energy mix; Lead time; Long leads; Numerical example; Optimal decisions; Real Options; Real options analysis; Strategic values; Time-lag concepts; Carbon dioxide; Electric power generation; Energy policy; Lead compounds; Investments; capital; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; decision making; development strategy; energy policy; government; investment; numerical model |
顯示於: | 環境工程學研究所 |
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