https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/85800
標題: | 區間數模糊線性規劃模式在氣候變遷對水資源影響評估之應用 | 作者: | 童慶斌 | 關鍵字: | 區間數;灰數;模糊集合;線性規劃;氣候變遷;全球暖化;Interval Number;Grey Number;Fuzzy Set;Climate Change;Global Warming | 公開日期: | 2000 | 出版社: | 臺北市:國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 | 摘要: | 自然界具有不確定性,如河川流量之隨機特性;而人類認知行為亦具有不定性,如對用水需求量之滿意度。由於人為大量排放溫室氣體,導致大氣溫室效應加強,而可能造成全球性之氣候變遷。氣候改變會直接衛擊水資源,不僅會影響供水量,也會影響需求量。台灣地區豐桔水期水資源可利用量差異大,因此鈴須藉由蓄水措施調節,氣候變遷影響供需水量,亦將影響蓄水容量之需求。蓄水容量可藉由線性規劃進行優化分析,然傳統的線性規劃方法中,係數與限制式右端常數皆設為確定數,且其解唯一。然而,許多問題皆具有不確定性,用確定數難以表示其特性。因此,有些研究利用序率線性規劃模式來探討此問題,然而序率方法需要有足夠的資料去檢定機率分佈函數,故在資料不足時較不可行。本研究提出區間數模糊線性規劃方法,以區間數描述自然不確定性,模糊集合描述人類對水資源需求量滿意度之不確定性,提供另一分析不確定性之途徑,並將其應用於氣候變遷對水資源影響評估之研究中。本研究之目的在建立氣候變遷對蓄水容量需求之影響評估方法,除T 模擬評估氣候變遷對供需水量之影響外,提出區間數模糊線性規劃方法以推求未來在氣候變遷下最佳蓄水容量需求。 Uncertainty exists in both nature and human knowledge . For example , stream flow has random characters , and human satisfaction of water demand could not be described by an exact value . Greenhouse effects are enhanced due to increasing greenLhouse gases emitted by human activities , which may result in global climate change . Climate change will directly affect water resources , not only water supply but also water demand . The quantity of available water resources in wet and dry seasons 15 very different in Taiwan , 50 storage 15 required to store water for later uses . C limate change will influence water supply and demand , and thus may affect storage requirement , Storage capacity can be determined by linear programming , Traditional linear programming model contains only constant right hand side and coefficients of the objective function and constraints . However , there exists uncertainty in water resources systems. Uncertainty cannot be incorporated in the optimization framework if deterministic parameters are used , Some studies use stochastic process to describe uncertalnty . However , the stochastic method requires more information for analysis , which 15 impossible sometimes. Interval number fuzzy linear programming model (TNFLP) is proposed in this study and is applied to climate change impact assessment. The INFLP uses interval number to describe natural variability and fuzzy set to describe uncertainty of human decisions. The purpose of this study is to develop a procedure to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The procedure includes simulation and optimization models. The simulation model is to evaluate the climate change impacts on stream flows and demand. On the other hand, the INFLP is applied to find optimal storage capacity can be determined for future climate change condition. |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/10691 | 其他識別: | 892313B002040 | Rights: | 國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 |
顯示於: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
檔案 | 描述 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
892313B002040.pdf | 942.52 kB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
在 IR 系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。