https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/85808
標題: | 行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告:水土資源永續指標體系及其評量與評價方法之建立─子計畫六:水土資源永續發展指標之研究(III) | 作者: | 童慶斌 | 公開日期: | 2001 | 出版社: | 臺北市:國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 | 摘要: | Sustainable development is to satisfy demands of current and next generations without exceeding environmental carrying capacity and avoiding ecosystem degradation. To monitoring the status of sustainability, indicators and their evaluation models are necessary. Many countries have been working on establishing indicators of sustainable development (ISD) based on agenda 21, and United Nation hopes ISD system could be available by year 2000. However, those indicator, systems are often built from bottom up, which may encounter difficulties due to lack of data and evaluation models for some indicators. A top-down procedure is adopted by our research team. One or at most two indicators with available evaluation models are selected by each sub-project, and then are further integrated. System dynamics is suggested for building evaluation models. A model to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources is designed in this study as an example. Similar models can be developed for other dimensions, such as soil erosion, and these models can be easily integrated. At last, this study suggests that environmental impact assessment should be promoted to sustainability impact assessment, which conserves not only environment and ecosystems but also equity between human generations. Besides, a decision support system (DSS) is recommended. The DSS should include evaluation models, database, and knowledge database. The system could evaluate sustainability and provide management strategies. 永續發展是在滿足目前與未來人類需求,並且不超過環境承載力以避免生態環境退化。然要監視或預測永續發展狀態則鈴須有指標體系與評量方法。目前世界各國均根據21 世紀議程積極擬定永續發展指標,聯合國期望各國能在西元2000 年以前完成指標系統,然大部分指標系統是以bottQm - uP 方式建構,往往因部分指標責料不足或無評估模式配合而造成執行困難。本研究群採top 一down 建構程序,各子計畫依其相關專長選定l 至2 項可由模式評量之指標,然後再整合為綜合指標。在指標評量方法上則建議利用系統動力學建構模式,本研究中亦發展一評估模式以探討氣候變遷對水資源供需指標之影響。類似系統動力模式可發展於評估其他永續指標,而不同模式可利用系統動力模式特性非常容易予以整合。研究最復提出建議,環境影響評估應進一步提升為永續力影響評估,除了環境與生態系統保護也確保世代公平;此外,亦建議發展決策支援系統,該系統包括評估模式、資料庫、與知識庫,除了評估永續力,並可有效提出管理決策建議。 |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/10701 | 其他識別: | 892621Z002053 | Rights: | 國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 |
顯示於: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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892621Z002053.pdf | 4.48 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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