https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/86183
標題: | 行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告:應用長期氣候預報於生態與水資源預警與風險管理系統 | 作者: | 童慶斌 | 關鍵字: | 氣候變遷;氣候異常;預警;風險管理;Climate Change;Early Warning;Extraordinary Climate;Risk Management | 公開日期: | 2004 | 出版社: | 臺北市:國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 | 摘要: | 生物生態保育與水資源問題長 久以來一直是大家所關心的問題。根 據童慶斌等(2002)研究報告,全球暖化 導致台灣地區氣候與水文有極端化之 趨勢,暴雨與乾旱均將更頻繁,全球 暖化與氣候變異特性顯著增加,對生 物、生態環境與水資源等均會產生衝 擊,實有必要及早擬定因應對策,建 立預警與風險管理機制。本研究為了 利用長期氣候預報資料建立生態以及 乾旱預警系統,分別建立了長期預報 資料降尺度方法、櫻花鈎吻鮭生態預 警系統以及水庫雙操作規線的乾旱預 警與管理系統。降尺度方法乃利用Bias Correction 建立大氣模式與地面測站之 間的轉換關係;櫻花鈎吻鮭生態預警 系統則利用水溫模式以及族群模式作 為環境與族群評估系統;並有一案例 說明如何利用遺傳演算法進行優選得 到水庫雙操作規線。生態與乾旱預警 系統均已初步建立完成,並且每一單 元均已證實可行,未來將需要進一步 結合氣候預報資料與降尺度方法,整 合成完整的預警與風險管理系統。 conservation and water resources have been drawn many attentions. According to the study by Tung et al., global warming may result in more often extreme hydrology, i.e. more frequent flood and drought. Climate change causing extraordinary climate may further influence biosystems, ecosystems, and hydrosystems, etc.. It desires to establish mitigation strategies associated with an early warning system to response the impacts. This study develops a framework of early warning and risk management systems for Formosa Salmon and drought by using seasonal climate forecasts, which major tasks also include downscaling seasonal climate forecasts and develop more flexible reservoir operational rules. In this study, the method of bias correction is introduced as an example to downscale climate forecasts to a local station. A water temperature and a population model based on previous study are used to predict possible future impacts on Formosa Salmon. A case study shows two sets of operational rules are optimized by the genetic algorithm for drought and non-drought periods. The framework of early warning and risk management systems has been established for ecosystem and drought. Each component has also been tested. In future, the early warning systems will link to seasonal climate forecasts and include more sophisticate risk management strategies. |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/10770 | 其他識別: | 922313B002102 | Rights: | 國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 |
顯示於: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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922313B002102.pdf | 233.06 kB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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