消費券政策之總體經濟效果分析

Abstract

2008年金融海嘯重創全球經濟，台灣政府在景氣低迷之際，採行在國內未曾實施的消費券政策，欲藉由刺激消費以達到提振景氣的目的。政策推出即引起各界廣泛討論，主要的爭議仍是在消費券發放能誘發多少消費？對振興經濟的效果有多少？因此，本文建立一總體經濟計量模型，探討2009年政府以移轉性支出方式，發放消費券振興經濟之總體效果，並模擬分析不同政策的情境。模擬結果顯示，相較於政府投資與政府消費而言，消費券政策對提升經濟成長的效果較為有限，第一年約提升經濟成長率0.21%，並在改善所得分配方面較有助益。至於，政府投資與政府消費雖能在第一年有較高的經濟成長，但自第二年後卻反有負向效果; 其次，針對消費券實施期間長短的效果比較，發現實施期間縮短使經濟成長較高，但實施期間拉長，家戶的邊際消費傾向較大; 最後，比較消費券以租稅與債務融通的效果，發現租稅融通對刺激經濟成長效果較大，此突顯出預算平衡對國民經濟的重要性。

This paper analyzes the effects of consumption vouchers policy on Taiwan economy. The consumption vouchers policy is a type of government transfer, and aims at stimulating domestic demand and economic growth. According to the simulations, we have three findings: first, compare to the government investment and consumption, the transfer payments are ineffective in raising economic growth, but effective in improving income distribution. Second, when consumption vouchers policy is implemented in a shorter period, the effects of stimulating economic growth are better. Thirdly, accounting of the effects of different methods to finance the consumption vouchers plan, the tax-financed transfers can raise economic growth much higher than the debt-financed transfers. This indicates the budget balance is important to enhance economic growth.