「台美自由貿易協定」的洽簽對我國農漁業影響之研究

Abstract

本文採用台灣農業部門模型與資料庫，針對我國與美國簽署自由貿易協定後，農產品與漁產品關稅與非關稅障礙的進一步削減，評估其對我國農漁業的影響衝擊。模擬結果顯示，來自美國農畜產品進口的全面開放（即模擬五）對我國農業的產值影響將會非常地大，而我國的農業勞動時數將會減少4%左右，由於我國的農業人口結構中有專兼業農，因此農業的失業人口將至少增加4%以上; 土地的耕作面積將會減少5 萬5 千公頃以上。不過，農業的總產值雖會減少，但整體的社會福利卻會增加，其中消費者所增加的福利遠大於生產者福利減少的部份，此隱含合理的補貼生產者的損失是可接受的。其次，就漁業部門內各漁業別所可能受到的衝擊影響而言，由產出面來看，台灣的漁產品產出水準會小幅下降，因為排除對漁業的保護後，台灣將會面對美國漁產品以較低的價格的進口，進而排擠國內市場的產出水準，造成國內產量下降。另外，由於我國食用漁產品的進口主要是以東南亞、澳洲為主，非食用品的進口主要是以南美的智利及祕魯等為主。整體而言，美國並非主要來源國，僅佔總進口值的9.11%，所以台美貿易自由協定對漁產品進口量的增加應影響不大，主要應為進口來源國間的替代。

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic impacts of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Taiwan and U.S. on Taiwan agriculture and fishery sectors using Taiwan Agricultural and Fishery Sector Models. Simulation results show that there is a significant negative impact on Taiwan agriculture if U.S. agricultural products were allowed to be imported without any trade restriction. For instance, unempolyment rate in Taiwan agricultural sector will be increased by 4% while planting acreage is reduced by 55,000 hectare. However, the value increase in consumers’ surplus is larger than the decrease in producers’ surplus. Thus a total social welfare is increased. This result implies that reasonable compensation on farmers is acceptable. Moreover, domestic production in fishery is reduced insignificantly as the FTA between Taiwan and U.S. is implemented. This reduction in domestic fishery production comes from lower importing prices and no trading restriction policy. However, the impact on Taiwan fishery import is not significant because U.S. occupies only 9.11% of Taiwan total fishery import value.