摘要:為利訂定溫室氣體階段管制目標(以下簡稱階段管制目標),環保署依據「溫室氣體減量及管理法」(以下簡稱溫管法)第11條規定,已於2017年3月28日會同經濟部,交通部,內政部及農業委員會共同發布「溫室氣體階段管制目標及管制方式作業準則」(以下簡稱作業準則)。又依據作業準則第7條規定,中央主管機關應會商中央目的事業主管機關訂定國家溫室氣體排放趨勢推估原則及參數,並進行溫室氣體排放趨勢推估及情境分析,以作為目標訂定之參考基礎。 此外,作業準則第8條規定,各部門之中央目的事業主管機關應依所屬部門進行部門別階段管制目標對於經濟、能源、環境、社會等面向及其因應作為之影響評估,提送中央主管機關彙整及綜合評估。
農委會為農、畜牧、漁及林業部門(以下簡稱農林部門)之中央目的事業主管機關。於此,本計畫依序辦理(1)蒐集、研析並提供最新國際溫室氣體相關議題之資訊,並完成巴黎協定相關決議文及規範分析;(2)訂定我國農林部門溫室氣體排放趨勢推估原則及參數,並進行農林部門溫室氣體排放趨勢推估及設計基礎情境(Business as usual, BAU)及糧食自給率(以熱量計)於2030年達到40%之2種情境設計;(3)配合階段管制目標之訂修,研商及提出農林部門溫室氣體減量情境、減量貢獻及減量成本之估算;(4)進行階段管制目標對於經濟、能源、環境、社會等面向及其因應作為之影響評估。此外,(5)針對我國農林部門溫室氣體為達成階段管制目標產生之影響及配合國際情勢提出因應措施之建議,以供施政參考。
本研究利用包含人口動態模組的動態可計算一般均衡分析模型-GEMTEE (General Equilibrium Model for Taiwanese Economy and Environment),並於農業部門做延伸調整。
本計畫亦派員參加波蘭卡托維治第24屆聯合國國際氣候大會(COP24),蒐集最新溫室氣體相關政策議題,研析其相關決議文及規範,提出農林部門因應措施之建議。本次會議重點為討論已開發國家如何帶頭實施氣候行動(climate action)分別為減緩(mitigation)與調適(adaptation),並加強對開發中國家提供財力與技術支持。倘若沒有已開發國家的金錢和技術支援,開發中國家推行調適與減緩將窒礙難行,且調適的優先權應在減緩之上。
Abstract: In order to set the “Periodic Regulatory Goal of the Greenhouse Gas”[hereinafter referred to as the “Periodic Regulatory Goal (PRG)”], Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) jointly released the “Regulations for Periodic Regulatory Goals and Approaches of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions [hereinafter referred to as the “Regulatory Approaches (RA)”], which based on Article 11 of the “Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act (GHGRMA)”, with Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA), Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC), Ministry of the Interior (MOI), and Council of Agriculture (COA) at 28 thof the March in 2017. In accordance with the Article 7 of the RA, the central competent authority shall consult with the central industry competent authorities to determine the national GHG emission trend projection principles and parameters as well as to project GHG emission trends and scenario analysis as the fundamental of PRG. In addition, Article 8 of the RA stipulates that the central industry competent authorities of the respective sectors shall submit their impact assessment of the PRG and actions in response to economic, energy, environmental, and societal aspects to the central competent authority for compilation and comprehensive evaluation.
The COA is the central industry competent authority in agricultural, forestry, fishery and husbandry sectors (hereinafter referred to as the "agriculture and forestry sector"). In this research project, we (1) we collected, analyzed and provided information on the latest international greenhouse gas (GHG) related issues and completed the relevant resolutions and normative analysis of the Paris Agreement; (2) set the principles and parameters for estimating GHG emission trends in agriculture and forestry sectors, conducted the assessment of GHG emission trends in the agriculture and forestry sector, and designed two scenarios were business as usual (BAU) and food self-sufficiency (accounted by calorie) of 40%; (3) in line with the revision of the PRG, we studied, discussed and submitted GHG reduction scenario, reduction contribution and estimation of the reduction cost of agriculture and forestry sectors; (4) we made impact assessment (IA) report of the PRG and actions in response to economic, energy, environmental, and societal aspects; (5) and in response to the impact of the GHG emission in agriculture and forestry sectors on the achievement of the PRG, we put forward suggestions on how to deal with the international situation for governmental reference.
The project also sent participants to the 24th UN Conference on Climate Change (COP24) in Katowice, Poland, collected the latest GHG-related policy issues, analysed the relevant resolutions and norms, and put forward suggestions on how to respond to the measures taken by the COA. COP23 focused on discussing how developed countries took the lead in climate action (mitigation and adaptation) and strengthening the financial and technical support for developing countries. In the absence of financial and technological support from developed countries, adaptation and mitigation in developing or underdeveloped countries will be difficult. And we need to do adaptation by any means necessary.