摘要:由於部份WTO貿易自由化議題的談判停滯不前,近年來各國更加快區域經貿整合的腳步。截至2014年6日止,通知WTO的RTA共計有585個,其中生效實施的有379件。面對區域經濟整合的趨勢,為確保我經濟成長,必須與主要貿易夥伴洽簽FTA。另我國已宣示台灣將爭取2020年加入「跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴協定」(TPP) ,這是高標準的FTA,沒有部門可以例外,為配合未來我國加入區域經濟整合的腳步,以及農業經貿深度自由化對農業部門之影響,實有必要事先評估,以因應產業可能受到之影響。並持續觀察TPP進展及擬加入國之態度與採取之作為,分析我國因應經貿自由化之農業戰略,研擬我國妥適之因應對策,以儘早做好充分準備,透過調整產業結構與提升競爭力,化危機為轉機。
本計畫隨時配合施政的需求,透過美國德州農工大學合作研發建立台灣地區農業部門模型(Taiwan Agricultural Sectoral Model,簡稱TASM)與台灣漁業部門模型(Taiwan Fishery Sectoral Model,簡稱TFSM),探討研析我國加入TPP/RCEP下的各種模擬情境,各種可能農產品關稅的進一步調降等對我國農業的影響及利弊衝擊評估;並參主要國家(日、韓、中國等)在其農業的因應戰略、農業總體進攻與防守對策、農業總體因應對策,研析可供我國借鏡之作法;並依據TPP後續談判發展趨勢,研擬我國因應經貿自由化之農業戰略,並採用與澳洲農業及資源經濟局(Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences;簡稱ABARES)共同合作研發一般均衡分析模型(General Equilibrium Model for Taiwanese Economy and Environment;簡稱GEMTEE)做為政策模擬分析之工具評估農業部門之產業鏈之影響評估。另外,舉辦四場專家座談會,廣納彙集各產業專家意見,提出可能的衝擊、利基與因應策略,作為產業調整參考。最終,提出我國因應加入TPP/RCEP之農業戰略、加入TPP/RCEP對我農業部門之影響評估及因應對策之決策建議。
而未來預期效益包含:1.蒐集比較各主要國家(日、韓、中國等)在整體農業戰策(進攻或防守),提出台灣適合的方案。(2).依據TPP/RCEP後續談判發展趨勢,評估在台灣未來加入後之農業策略模擬評估,隨時彙整專家意見,提出可能的衝擊、利基,以作為產業調整參考。 (3).提供必要且即時的模擬評估及決策支援,將研究成果進行公開說明,或於相關專業期刊發表。 (4). 舉辦專家座談會,請國內相關專家學者以及業界代表,提供其豐富研究或產業經驗看法與分享,並進而整理其政策建議,供委辦單位參考。
Abstract: As part of the WTO negotiations on trade liberalization issues stagnated in recent years, almost all countries accelerate the pace of regional economic and trade integration. Until June, 2014, 585 RTAs have been proposed to the WTO (regional free trade agreements), of which 379 agreements already in force to perform. Faced with the trend of regional economic integration, we need to ensure that our economic growth, negotiating with our major trading partners and signing FTAs. Taiwan will seek to join the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) in 2020, which is a high-standard FTA, and there is almost no exception for any government and any sector. In order to being involved into regional economic integration, as well as to accelerate the trade of agriculture, prior assessment is necessary. Analyzing the agricultural strategy with global trade liberalization, adopting proper countermeasures and adjusting industrial structure is the three key elements for facing the global trend of economic and trade liberalization.
This project will meet the policy demand as specified above. Taiwan Agricultural Sectoral Model (TASM) and Taiwan Fishery Sectoral Model are adopted to stimulate the scenarios such as agricultural products’ further cut in tariffs, preferential origin, sets of import and export specifications through multi-country and single-country model of joining the TPP or RCEP to assess the pros and cons and the impact on Taiwan`s agriculture. Refer to major countries (Japan, South Korea, China, etc.) experiences in agricultural strategy. By using the General Equilibrium Model for Taiwanese Economy and Environment (GEMTEE) which introduced by Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) and the research team to stimulate the impact of agricultural value chain after joining the TPP. On the other hand, 4 seminars invited interdisciplinary experts will enhance our ability to enact the policy more properly. Finally, we will present our recommendation and point out the impact of joining the TPP for agriculture sector.
The expected benefits of the research include: (1). Research and Analysis of major countries (Japan, Korea, China, etc.) on their overall agricultural strategies. Propose the proper strategies that fit Taiwan the best. (2). Simulate different scenarios and negotiation trend to decide the probability of joining TPP and consult with experts to lower the impacts at any time (3). Refer to major countries (Japan, South Korea, the United States, Australia, China, etc.) experiences, and research the lessons for our practice to complete the final report writing, propose specific policy recommendations for decision-making reference and provide necessary and immediate modeling assessments and decision supports. We will provide policy explanation and adjustment strategies. Moreover, we will make our research results published, if possible, in relevant professional journals. (4). Organize a forum of experts, invite domestic scholars with a wealth of research experience in industry and inter-industry to provide policy recommendations and their view on the issues related to TPP.