Abstract
摘要:天然災害會導致生命財產損失並對經濟體造成傷害,尤其對農業更是明顯。長久以來探討天災對農業
影響大多來自總體經濟層面的評估。本研究提出一個兩年期的計畫案探討臺灣天然災害對農地價格以
及農業生產要素使用的影響,第一年計畫將建立村里別的臺灣天然災害損害資料庫,將利用「農業天
然災害補助辦法」由2009 到2015 年共約一千萬筆所有核准領取補助的農地以及領取人資料為依據,
建立各村里、各月份、不同型態天然災害所造成農業損失的村里追蹤樣本。不同於現有官方發佈以縣
市為主的統計資料,本資料庫將是臺灣第一個提供詳細農業天然災害損害的資料庫。第二年計畫將結
合天災資料和「實價登錄系統」的所有農地市場交易資料,評估農業天災對農地價格之影響。第三年
計畫則是結合天災資料和2009 至2014 年「稻穀生產調查」的稻農戶追蹤樣本,探討農業天然災害對
稻穀生產要素使用之影響。
本研究對於現有國內外天然災害研究將有多方面貢獻。第一、本研究應是國內首次嘗試建立各
村里、各月份、各種不同型態的農業天災損害資料庫。該資料庫因直接彙整於實際領取的公務資料,
所以天災損害衡量準確性高。第二、土地經濟學文獻對於天災如何影響農地價格有歧見,部分學者認
為天災會對土地產生標籤效果,使得農地地價下跌,但另一派學者則認為天災救助金如同其他政府政
策,補助效果會傳遞在農地價值上使農地增值。本計畫將對以上兩種不同論點提出一個以臺灣資料為
例的實證評估研究。第三、許多實證文獻已發現天災會減少農家所得,但對於其背後機制或原因並未
有太多著墨。本計畫透過農業天災對農業要素使用之影響,研究發現可解釋為何農業天災會降低農家
所得。
Abstract: Natural disasters can cause loss of life or property damage, and typically leave economic damage, especially on agriculture. The examination of the impacts of natural disasters on agriculture has received longstanding research interests and most of the existing studies rely on macro-level analysis. This study provides a two-year project to investigate the influence of natural disasters on farmland values and the uses of farm production inputs. The first year project is to construct a unique township-level panel dataset of agricultural disaster shocks drawn from approximately 10 million recipients of the Agricultural Disaster Relief Program in Taiwan. In contrast to public available data on agricultural disasters, our dataset will be month-town-event specific and the incidence and the average level of agricultural disaster payments for different types of disasters will be created. The objective of the second year project is to quantify the impacts of agricultural
disasters on farmland values. An instrumental variable panel data fixed effect model will be utilized to estimate farmland value equations using a population-based sample of farmland transaction record drawn from the Actual Selling Price of Real Estate administrative profile. In the third year, we quantify the impacts of natural disasters on the use of farm production inputs, including seed, pesticide, fertilizer, and labor. An individual rice farm level panel dataset drawn from the Rice Production Cost Survey between 2009 and 2014 will be constructed for empirical analysis.
This study can contribute to existing literature of natural disasters in several fronts. First, a unique dataset of the extensive and intensive margins for different types of natural disasters will be constructed. Moreover, the measures of disaster shocks are objective since they are drawn from the administrative profile of the agricultural disaster payments in Taiwan. Second, land economics literature has received a disagreement regarding the effect of natural disasters on farmland values. In theory, a negative effect can be due to the land "stigma effect" resulted from disaster shocks, while farmland values may be capitalized and increased from agricultural assistance relief payments. This study provides an empirical investigation of these two competing theories. Third, this study examines the influences of disaster shocks on farm production input uses which offer a discussion on potential mechanisms that can be used to explain the existing finding
of the negative effect of natural disasters on farm income.
Keyword(s)
農業天然災害
農地價格
農業生產要素使用
公務資料
臺灣
Agricultural natural disaster
farmland values
farm production input uses
administrative data
Taiwan