摘要：伴隨在災害性主震之後的中、大規模餘震活動常為擴大嚴重災損之原因之一，但分析餘震規模特性之相關研究卻不多。如何掌握餘震活動可能帶來的危害性亦是防、減災工作的要點。本計劃欲利用Omori’s law與Gutenberg-Richter relation之統計經驗公式來推算主震發生後每個時點所可能發生的最大餘震規模(Ma)，進而建立預報系統，期能對民眾與防、減災工作者提供主震後更多的訊息。
Abstract: Moderate and large aftershocks usually exaggerate damages by main shocks. However, only few studies focus on aftershock behaviors in the past. It is important for seismic hazard prevention and mitigation to understand behaviors of aftershock activities. In this project, we will introduce Omori’s law and Gutenberg-Richter relation to forecast maximum magnitudes (Ma) during different periods after occurrence of large earthquakes. We expect that through this project, decision makers and the general public acquired more information after occurrence of large earthquakes.
In the past year, we investigated the characteristics of the Chi-Chi aftershocks sequence, acquired experiment parameters for this sequence, and evaluate temporal evolution of the maximum aftershocks. In this year, we expect to analysis seismic sequence in the Taiwan region and acquire empirical formulas to evaluate largest magnitude of aftershocks. In the next year, we try to build up an automatic forecasting system in Central Weather Bureau.