最大餘震規模預報模式之建立

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Project title/計畫英文名

最大餘震規模預報模式之建立

Project Number/計畫編號

MOTC-CWB-100-E-03

Translated Name/計畫中文名

最大餘震規模預報模式之建立

Project Principal Investigator/計畫主持人

YIH-MIN WU

Funding Organization

Central Weather Bureau, MOTC

Start date/計畫起

01-01-2011

Expected Completion/計畫迄

31-12-2011

摘要：伴隨在災害性主震之後的中、大規模餘震活動常是造成嚴重災損的原因之一，但分析餘震規模之相關研究卻不多。如何掌握餘震活動可能帶來的危害性亦是防、減災工作的要點。本計劃欲利用Omori’s law與Gutenberg-Richter relation之統計經驗公式來推算主震發生後每個時點所可能發生的最大餘震規模(Ma)，進而建立預報系統，期能對民眾與防、減災工作者提供主震後更多的訊息。我們預計在第一年分析台灣地區歷年的地震主餘震序列的特性，從而歸納求出公式中地區性的經驗常數，用以建構我們的可能最大餘震規模轉換公式，並且實測最大餘震規模推算之結果，並在第二年架構預報系統。
Abstract: Moderate and large aftershocks followed by devastating earthquakes usually cause serious damages. However, only few studies focus on aftershock behaviors. It is important for seismic hazard prevention and mitigation to understand behaviors of aftershock activities. In this project, we will introduce Omori’s law and Gutenberg-Richter relation to forecast maximum magnitudes (Ma) during different periods after occurrence of large earthquakes. We expect that through this project, decision makers and the general public acquired more information after occurrence of large earthquakes.
We expect to analysis seismic sequence in the Taiwan region and acquire empirical formulas to evaluate largest magnitude of aftershocks. In the second year, we apply our empirical formulas practically and evaluate its feasibility, and build up an automatic forecasting system in Central Weather Bureau.

Keyword(s)

災害性主震
餘震規模
devastating earthquakes
aftershock behaviors

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最大餘震規模預報模式之建立

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