A Marco-Econometric Research on Population Structure and Stock Index in Taiwan
Date Issued
2010
Date
2010
Author(s)
Tai, Hsi-Ting
Abstract
The distribution of population age structure is an important issue affecting the overall economy. Since different age groups have different consumption demands , age structure change will affect the public consumption, investment and savings at first , then affect the economy and thus the price, wage level and the exchange rate.
With advances in medical standards, average life expectancy of Taiwan''s population over past few decades have significant extension, while decline in fertility may also affect economy’s sustainable development in the future. In addition to , as public spend more time managing their wealth now, stock index is a useful instrument to evaluate changes in people''s wealth level.
The purpose of this study is to apply statistical regression, time series methods to construct monthly macroeconomic model, and simultaneous impact of large changes from young dependency ratios, elderly dependency ratios, and stock price index , to the overall economy.
While most of macroeconomic data are built on season or year , consider different datas’ characteristic ,I translate them into month and year data by different methods. In addition, in order to capture the demographic changes on consumption. I divided consumption into three main types , which are food and clothing consumption , energy and transportation expenditure, education and health care expenditure .
There are 87 model equations in this article , including 55 structural equation and 32 definition equations , 87 endogenous variables and 23 exogenous variables. The model’s period is from April 1994 to December 2009, and forecast in January 2010 to December 2012 for domestic economic trends. Sample forecasts and scenario analysis results are in keeping with economic intuition .
Subjects
Population structure
dependency ratio
macroeconomic model
low birth rate
aging population
stock index
SDGs
Type
thesis
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