The Effect of Imports on Structural Change of Meat Demand System in Taiwan
Date Issued
2007
Date
2007
Author(s)
Chang, Chien-Wen
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The Purpose of this master thesis was to provide an empirical method to analyze the structural change effect of meat consumers by Imports in Taiwan. Analyze the change of Import quantity further, whether the reaction influenced consumer to change for the hobby of the each meat, and change to meat price and personal income of reaction. And then search the possible structure change point of each meat. Understand the condition of meats demand characteristic and its structure change, can provide domestic manufacturer and government parties concerned, by with establishment future the plan of the industry adjust and development, or draft manufacturer and consumer to protect the reference of measure.
This study take the import quantity (thousand ton) as the impact factor, and the gradually switching almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model was employed to estimate the meats demand system in Taiwan during 1966-2005. Under the assumption of products weakly separability, the meats in this study were categorized into pork, beef, chicken, fish and other meats. Try through the different model set and estimate method to estimate demand system, and measure both the partial type of structure change and take place points. Finally, 1)Estimate and analyze Marshalliam demand elasticities, Allen partial elasticities of substitution and the elasticities of import; 2)Analyze the change condition of each elasticities of structure change in front and back.
The results of Log-likelihood ratio test indicates that the structural change effect of import quantity is mainly derived from the parameter of price, and Wu-Hausman test also reveals that prices for meats are endogenous in demand system. So the meats demand system in this empirical research, need to set price as the structural change source and make use of the I3SLS method to carry on. And then the transition period of structural change shows that the beef took place in 1975 in Taiwan, and others appeared in 1999 simultaneously.
Based on the estimated demand elasticities, under the influence of Imports, in addition to few gross (net) substitutes and complements, the subtitutability and complementarity between most of the two meat product are small. Accroding to elasticities of import, the elasticity of beef is the biggest, showing that beef is the meat product that take the influence of Imports most.
The variety changed in front and back consumer reaction points out, consumers become more sensitive to reaction of pork, chicken and other meats demand or price, is easily changed by price and expenditure and caused demand change. However, beef and fish products then turn into less not sensitive. The reaction of import quantity change could find that the increment range of beef elasticities is the biggest, pork and other meats also have some tiny raise. Furthermore, chicken even turns the value by negative into positive, and the increase of import quantity of chicken will improve its expenditure share after structural change.
Subjects
開放進口
結構變動
漸進調整
近似理想需求體系
需求體系
肉類需求
Imports
Structural Change
Gradually Switching
Almost Ideal Demand System
Demand System
Meat Demand
Type
thesis
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