The Economic Assessment Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on China, Taiwan and South-East Asia countries when exploded from Thailand.
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Chang, Xin-Gui
DOI
en-US
Abstract
This study discusses the socio-economic impacts of avian flu on China, Taiwan and South-East Asia countries when exploded from Thailand. The impacts on macroeconomics and Thailand’s poultry sector are the major concerns of this crisis. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model is employed to evaluate the production, export, and employment variation which took an effect together with the poultry sector.
The model simulation results indicate that if the avian flu is exploded from Thailand’s poultry sector, Thailand’s real GDP would drop -0.69~-0.78% but no large effects are found in other neighboring countries except China. When the Southeast Asian countries suffer from reduced poultry exports, it will also affect China. On the other hand, when China was heavily shocked by the outbreak, it will not only take an effect to the Southeast Asia countries but also take a toll to Taiwan’s economy along with rest of the world through trade links.
Subjects
禽流感
GTAP 模型
經濟影響
Avian flu
computable general equilibrium model
poultry sector
international trade
Type
thesis
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Loading...
Name
ntu-95-R94627022-1.pdf
Size
23.53 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum
(MD5):4729ebebc7fc78ca0fc3b3896c5ed483