Possible shift in controls of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern
Journal
Nature
Journal Volume
630
Journal Issue
8016
Start Page
315
End Page
324
ISSN
0028-0836
1476-4687
Date Issued
2024-06-12
Author(s)
Abstract
Changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the tropical Pacific modulate radiative feedbacks to greenhouse gas forcing, the pace of global warming and regional climate impacts. Therefore, elucidating the drivers of the pattern is critically important for reducing uncertainties in future projections. However, the causes of observed changes over recent decades, an enhancement of the zonal SST contrast coupled with a strengthening of the Walker circulation, are still debated. Here we focus on the role of external forcing and review existing mechanisms of the forced response categorized as either an energy perspective that adopts global and hemispheric energy budget constraints or a dynamical perspective that examines the atmosphere–ocean coupled processes. We then discuss their collective and relative contributions to the past and future SST pattern changes and propose a narrative that reconciles them. Although definitive evidence is not yet available, our assessment suggests that the zonal SST contrast has been dominated by strengthening mechanisms in the past, but will shift towards being dominated by weakening mechanisms in the future. Finally, we present opportunities to resolve the model–observations discrepancy regarding the recent trends.
Subjects
Atmosphere
Climate Models
Feedback
Global Warming
Greenhouse Gases
Pacific Ocean
Seawater
Temperature
Tropical Climate
Water Movements
SDGs
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Type
journal article