Measuring the end of the European financial crisis: A test for "ins" and "outs"
Journal
Economics of Transition
Journal Volume
25
Journal Issue
4
Pages
663-680
Date Issued
2017
Author(s)
Lin, Ya-chi
Abstract
Abstract In 2013 it was declared that ‘the eurozone crisis is over’. However, in fact, the series of financial crises since 2008 may have interrupted the process of EMU enlargement, which in turn triggered a continuing crisis of confidence in the euro. In this paper we extend the sigma‐convergence test to provide a more precise understanding of real interest rate parity ( RIP ) convergence. On the basis of this, we predict the timing for eliminating the cost of economic asymmetric shocks. Our estimation indicates the RIP among EMU members and accessions were still valid after the disruptions of the 2008 financial crisis. However, the situation has been even worse since the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis, and ceteris paribus , symmetry cannot be achieved without further policy actions. This implies that the EMU authority must do its best to strengthen symmetry and thereby solidify the EMU , at which point it will be better able to re‐start the process of enlargement.
Type
journal article