An Offensive Realist Assessment of the Implications of China's Seapower for East Asian Relative Power, 1985-2015
Date Issued
2016
Date
2016
Author(s)
Clark, Erin A.
Abstract
In recent years, China’s seapower development and its effects on the region have piqued interest and given rise to debate. This thesis attempts to apply an analytical framework based on John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism to study the effects of China’s regional seapower on East Asia’s relative latent and actual power. Although the United States is the most powerful actor in the region, it is not a permanent presence. Therefore, this thesis will examine not only the relative power dynamic between the United States and China, but will also consider how China’s regional seapower is affecting the relative power dynamic between China and regional states. The first chapter explains the underlying motivation of this work and introduces the methodology and theory to be employed, while the second chapter fully lays out the theoretical basis for this thesis, describing in detail how John J. Mearsheimer’s theory of offensive realism has been adapted and applied within this research. The third chapter moves on to provide an analysis of the theoretical development directing Chinese seapower development and application. Chapter three reviews the development of China’s seapower theory from 1985 to 2015 and analyzes key concepts underpinning the application of Chinese seapower at the strategic and campaign levels. The fourth chapter explores China’s seapower development since 1985, paying particular attention to anti-surface warfare capabilities. This chapter studies the Chinese sea-based threat to the United States’ forward presence in East Asia and analyzes Chinese seapower’s anti-access and area denial capabilities vis-a-vis the United States. Chapter four concludes with a discussion of Chinese seapower’s ability to establish air and sea control, and to achieve local superiority in relation to regional states. Chapters five and six focus on the peacetime application of Chinese seapower within East Asia. As opposed to the analysis provided in chapter four, the discussion in chapters five and six pertains primarily to the implications of Chinese seapower for relative latent power. As such, these two chapters center on China’s “white hulls” and their use both in preventing other littoral states from exploiting regional resources and in securing living and non-living resources in the East and South China Seas for Chinese exploitation. The seventh chapter draws on the analysis of previous chapters and offers an overall assessment of trends in Chinese seapower development and implications for East Asian relative power. Unlike the preceding chapters, chapter seven identifies current trends and makes long-term projections for regional power based on these trends. Specifically, this chapter explores how China is using and will use seapower to weaken the United States’ relative actual power within East Asia and to strengthen its coercive power with regard to regional states. Chapter seven reaches the conclusion that Chinese seapower’s capability to challenge and weaken the United States’ forward military presence in East Asia continues to grow. As a result of this growth, Chinese seapower is providing—and will continue to provide—China with increased deterrent and coercive power vis-a-vis regional states, particularly the littoral states of the South China Sea. The final chapter of this thesis serves as a brief conclusion. After explaining the primary findings of this work, chapter eight offers possible contributions of this thesis to future academic research, and explores potential avenues for future research.
Subjects
East Asia
East China Sea
South China Sea
Seapower
Relative Latent Power
Relative Actual Power
Coercive Power
SDGs
Type
thesis
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