Early Warning System for Emerging Europe and Latin America
Date Issued
2008
Date
2008
Author(s)
Wu, Chun-Hui
Abstract
The main purpose of this thesis is to provide a measure of the probability of crises related to a aggregate index. Firstly we set a market index pressure to measure when a nation experienced currency crisis. Secondly, given a group of economic variables, we use Signal Approach suggested by Berg and Patillo (1999)、Goldstein (2000)、Kamisky and Reinhert (1998)、Edison to find which variables can have signals before the real crises happen. Finally, these workable variables would be used to set up an early warning system to predict the possibility of crises. Our warning system includes twelve nations: Argentina, Chile, Czech, Estonia, Hungary, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Turkey and also ten economic variables.
Subjects
signal approach
emerging Europe
Latin America
monetary crises
Early warning system
Type
thesis
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