Search For Financially Distressed Companies
Date Issued
2009
Date
2009
Author(s)
Fang, Chih-Che
Abstract
Financial distressed companies make investors lose lots of money. Those always use “window-dressing” to improve their performance before presenting it to investors or share-olders. The fourth software outsourcing company “Satyam Computer Service Ltd” admitted that they exactly hide the performance about financial statements. Although financial state-ents are not good enough for investors to judge distress company immediately, those are still an important media to search financial distressed risk. I use Mann-Whitney U test for assessing whether variables of financial ratios come from the normal distribution. And I use stepwise regression to choose “statistically significant” financial ratio to establish financial distressed prediction models. The third step is to use logistic regression to establish the first, second, third year financial distressed prediction models. The overall prediction correct are 95.1%、89.6%、86.4%. Nagelkerke are 0.823、0.75 and 0.736. The distressed prediction models bring a good forecast about financial distressed companies.
Subjects
financial distress risk
logistic regression
stepwise regression
Type
thesis
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