Regional Landslide Susceptibility Using Conditional Probability Models
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Liaw, Shyh-Jie
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
The hazardous in Taiwan landslides often occurred during frequent earthquake and rainfall. An effective landslide prediction map could provide an important reference for policymaking for land use regulation and drafting of mitigation measures of potential disastrous area.
The Conditional Probability method was utilized to construct landslide potential model and prediction model of the study area in central Taiwan. The geographic information system database of the study area was constructed by colleting geology and geomorphology data and the landslide triggered by Chi-Chi earthquake, Toraji typhoon, and lower case typhoon. The landslide scars coincide well with the high landslide probability area of prediction map. Furthermore, the results of comparisons also prove the suitability through verification in this research.
The variance analysis of the factor, scars, and the likelihood ratio was performed using the Statistical Program for Social Sciences. Univariate ANOVA could provide the significance for triggered scars, and verify the effect of the landslide fitting analysis. Two-Way ANOVA could provide the interaction effect of the fitting analysis. Correlation Analysis could provide the association of single factor between the study areas. Independent-Samples T-Test could quantify the similarity of multi-factors between the areas.
The results of landslide fitting analysis of earthquake indicate that using the aspect, slope and geology factors, could properly build up the model. The fitting analysis of rainfall is based on the aspect, slope, elevation, geology and cohesion factors. The results of landslide prediction analysis using the slope factor, could properly build up a distinguishing landslide prediction model. The correlation coefficient of the study areas’ single factor likelihood ratios ,which could establish a good linear relation with the effect of prediction analysis. The multi-factors likelihood ratios between the areas could use the t-value to establish the association equation, which provides the index of the study areas’ similarity.
Keyword：landslides induced by earthquake, Conditional Probability , landslide prediction, spatial analysis
Subjects
地震引致山崩
條件式機率
山崩預測
空間變異數
landslides induced by earthquake
Conditional Probability
Geographic Information System
landslide prediction
spatial analysis
SDGs
Type
thesis
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