Decision-Tree Analysis on Optimal Release of Reservoir Storage under Typhoon Warnings
Resource
Natural Hazards,44(1),65-84.
Journal
Natural Hazards
Pages
65-84
Date Issued
2008-01
Date
2008-01
Author(s)
Cheng, C.-C.
Hsu, N.S.
Wei, C.-C.
Abstract
The wet and dry seasons are distinctive in Taiwan as the amount of precipitation in wet seasons accounts for over three-fourth of the total rainfall. And the water-resources management relies pretty much on the rainfall brought in by typhoons as it accounts for a significant portion of the precipitation during wet seasons. Furthermore, as the storage of reservoirs is limited due to topographical factors, the management of typhoon rainfall has always been an important issue in Taiwan. The technique of decision-tree analysis is applied in this article to determine the optimal reservoir release in advance upon the issuance of a typhoon warning by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), and the proposed methodology may provide solution to the trade-off judgment of reservoir operations between flood control and water supply according to economic efficiency. In this article, the economic loss functions of flooding damage and water-supply shortage are assumed in linear and nonlinear conditions, and the respective expected optimal releases based on the predicted precipitation as issued by CWB are derived. The proposed methodology has been applied to the Shihmen Reservoir System, and the capabilities of the model as an aid to real-time decision-making as well as the evaluation of the economic worth of forecasts is presented. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.
Subjects
Decision-tree analysis; Loss function; Reservoir release; Typhoon warnings
Other Subjects
decision making; decision support system; flood control; flood damage; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; rainfall; reservoir flooding; trade-off; typhoon; warning system; water management; water resource; water supply; Asia; Eurasia; Far East; Shihmen Reservoir; Taiwan
Type
journal article