Spatial-temporal Analysis of Dengue Transmission through Daily Movement of Population
Date Issued
2011
Date
2011
Author(s)
Huang, Yi-Tin
Abstract
Objective: The purpose of the study is to analyze the role of population movement in the dengue transmission and to differentiate the diffusion characteristics of the epidemic due to population movement and geographic proximity.
Methods: Temporal scan statistics was used to divide into the initial and clustering periods of the dengue epidemic. We then used the disease cases during the initial period and the matrices of population travel and geographic proximity to simulate the spatial patterns of the clustering period. The dual spatial lag with geographically weighted regression was used to identify the spatial heterogeneity of diffusion characteristics due to population travel and geographic proximity.
Results: The results indicated that most of cases during the clustering period can be explained by the simulation with the population travel matrix. The areas with stronger travel connectivity (ex. Hdisoksng Precinct and Fengshan city) and with large overlap of initial period (ex. Chienchen Precinct) were diffused earlier. On the other hand, the areas with weaker travel connectivity (ex. Kushan, Yenchen, Chiching) and with almost none overlap of initial period (ex. Tsoying, Nantzu Precinct) were diffused later. The simulation with the geographic proximity matrix can only explain the clustering patterns of the areas and the surroundings where cases occurred during the initial period. The regression results indicated that the effect of geographic proximity is significant on disease diffusion in the areas with early development; effect of population travel is significant in the industrial areas and new development areas. Both effects are significant in the central belt areas with densely populated of Kaohsiung.
Conclusion: The patterns of dengue epidemic in 2001-2003 mixed the contagious and relocation diffusion due to population travel and was spread by the population movement mainly. Therefore, implementation of prevention and control strategies should take different diffusion characteristics into further consideration.
Subjects
dengue
population movement
temporal scan statistics
spatial autocorrelation
geographically weighted regression
SDGs
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