猜測性產能投資決策與競爭動態性之研究：半導體與石化產業全球競爭分析

Previous research on capacity
strategies can be classified into two
streams. The first stream of research
focuses on deterring entry by excess capacity, and the second stream
concentrates on using capacity expansion as a collusive device.
Previous literature, however, largely
focused on theoretical development of
the concept on strategic interaction.
Large scale empirical studies on
conjectures on both capacity and
competitive dynamics are still missing.
This research intends to use capacity
conjectures to examine strategies
employed by incumbents in the chemical
and semiconductor industries to shed
lights on the competition in these two
industries. We can observe that
conjectures of capacity shows a
negative and significant impact on
market share instability. In other words,
firms tend to use capacity to collude and
thus reduce market share changes. We
also find that market growth increases
market share instability. As expected,
we also find that product homogeneity
reduces market share instability while
high sunk cost also reduces it.