Estimates of Survival Rates and Resighting probabilities andredictions of the Future Population by Using Banded-Resighting Data ofhe Black-Faced Spoonbill
Date Issued
2009
Date
2009
Author(s)
Chen, Chia-Ying
Abstract
The understanding of the dynamics of animal populations and of related ecologicalnd evolutionary issue frequently depends on analyses of individuals'' life history parameters.ecause marked individuals cannot be followed closely through time,he exact time of death is most often unknown.hus, the analysis of survival studies and experiments must be based on capture-recapture(or resighting) models.his article presents a detailed, practical example on the design, analysis,nd interpretation of capture-recapture studies.he marked-resighting data set on the black-faced spoonbill is given to illustrate the theory,nd its lifestyle of backgrounds is covered in detail in Chapter 2.n Chapter 3 we consider time-dependent Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models with groups of animals,hich are central to the article.his approach is conditioning on first capture;ence it dose not attempt to model the initial capture of unmarked animals as functions ofopulation abundance in addition to survival and resighting probabilitieshich were developed and estimated using MARK.he fluctuations of estimates in three groups of birds (juvenile/health, adult/health and adult/recovery) are compared.n Chapter 4 we give a detailed description and demonstration of model selection.oodness of fit, likelihood-ratio test and Akaike''s Information Criterion are introducedor the selection of more parsimonious models.he best model to describe the data of BFS is one single survival rate, 0.8568(95%CI: 0.7287-0.9302),nd one single resighting probability, 0.9333(0.7851-0.9817).ext, we examine the effects of physical situation or environmental event(outbreak of botulism or age) by adding constraints in the models.uffering from diseases the survival rate of BFS drop about 40 percent.esighting probabilities in the earlier three years are 10 percent lower than latter years.n Chapter 5 we apply annual population information and life history parameters estimated in previous chapters to modelnd predict the population of BFS, and evaluate the time of extinction.eterministic and stochastic models are both considered,nd simulated results are provided.hen the time is in the year of 2015,he number(+- SD) of BFS in Taiwan will grow up to 2360 +- 275 (today''s population in Taiwan is 1104),nd in current situation the possibility to be extinct is quite small.owever,hen the number is double,pace and food will be another big issue to be considered.
Subjects
capture-recapture
survival
resighting
black-faced spoonbill
population size
model selection
Type
thesis
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