Evaluating Future Joint Probability of Precipitation Extremes with a Copula-Based Assessing Approach in Climate Change
Journal
Water Resources Management
Journal Volume
32
Journal Issue
13
Pages
4253-4274
Date Issued
2018
Author(s)
Jhong B.-C.
Abstract
Changes in climate extremes may cause the variation of occurrence and intensity of floods and droughts. To investigate the future changes in joint probability behaviors of precipitation extremes for water resources management, an approach including three stages for analyzing the spatial variation of joint return periods of precipitation extremes is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, a weather generator model (WGM) was conducted with general circulation models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios to generate daily rainfall time series during 2021–2040 (S) and 2081–2100 (L) based on the statistics of the observed rainfall data. Four extreme precipitation indices are defined to represent extreme precipitation events. In the second stage, copula methods are adopted to establish the joint distribution of the precipitation extreme indices. The watershed-scale assessment of flood and drought applied in Shih-Men reservoir in northern Taiwan is conducted to demonstrate the possible change of joint return period. In the third stage, the change rates of joint return periods for bivariate extreme indices are demonstrated to present the occurrence possibility of floods or droughts in the future. The results indicate that floods and droughts might occur more frequently in the upstream region of the reservoir during the twenty-first century. The reservoir operations would be more important for water supply and flood mitigation. In conclusion, the possible changes of future joint probability of the precipitation extremes should be paid attention to for water resources management and draft plans to confront potential challenges in the future. © 2018, Springer Nature B.V.
Subjects
Climate change; Copula functions; Joint return period; Precipitation extremes; Water resources management
Other Subjects
Distribution functions; Drought; Floods; Probability; Rain; Reservoirs (water); Time series; Water resources; Water supply; Copula functions; Extreme precipitation; Extreme precipitation events; General circulation model; Joint distributions; Joint return period; Precipitation extremes; Water resources management; Climate change; atmospheric general circulation model; climate change; extreme event; precipitation assessment; probability; rainfall; return period; spatial variation; water management; water resource; Shihmen Reservoir; Taiwan
Type
journal article