中共與反彈道飛彈條約體制的瓦解---對臺灣安全的影響
Date Issued
2003-07-31
Date
2003-07-31
Author(s)
DOI
912414H002026
Abstract
The most disturbing consequence of abrogation of the ABM treaty is that it could
spark a new arms race in offensive and defensive weapons. For a long time, Beijing has
warned that the ABM treaty is the cornerstone of desarmament regime and that if it is
damaged they would rethink all previous undertakings on disarmament. The value of most
of China’s roughly 20 intercontinental nuclear missiles capable of striking the U.S. could
be nullified by NMD. This raises concern in Beijing that NMD deployment would grant the
U.S. power to launch a first strike against China with relative impunity. It would also focus
China’s attention on the threat that a pre-emptive attack could wipe out its nascent nuclear
weapons development. Again, the strategic relationship between China and the U.S. would
be upset. China could only stave off this kind of danger by expanding its nuclear arsenal. In
the recent past, establishment scientists and academics in China have repeatedly
commented that NMD would compel China to expand its nuclear arsenal and develop
multiple warhead missiles and several studies have concluded that China could easily
double or triple in size its nuclear arsenal. Many U.S. academics have noted that China will
continue modernization of its nuclear forces even if NMD is not deployed. However, for a
long time, China’s nuclear program has focused on upgrading the quality of its devices
rather than increasing their number. If this policy is redirected towards increasing warhead
numbers as a result of NMD, there will be a major impact on regional and international
security. In particular there would be the danger of a domino effect: India may respond by
expanding its nuclear capability, Pakistan could do the same. It is also possible that this
domino effect happens in East Asia (between Japan, North Korea and South Korea).
What will be this impact on Taiwan, which is heavily reliant on U.S. guarantees
for its own security? If scrapping of the ABM treaty leads China to expand its nuclear
arsenal and this sparks a nuclear arms race and proliferation in Asia, the effect on Taiwan’s
strategic environment would be considerable. Around the time of the 1996 Taiwan Strait
missile crisis when the U.S. dispatched two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait, Beijing
indirectly warned the U.S that China believed “you care a lot more about Los Angeles than
Taipei.” This was of course a threat of a nuclear strike on U.S. soil. An increase in the
number of Chinese missiles would naturally impact upon the credibility of U.S. security
commitments to Taiwan. Nonetheless, if U.S. NMD could substantially reduce the threat of
Chinese nuclear weapons to U.S. territory, the U.S. would be less susceptible to China’s
nuclear blackmail when fulfilling its security commitments to Taiwan. Just how the relative
likelihood of these two scenarios develops will be of most intimate concern to Taiwan in
the future.
Subjects
Missile Defense
ABM Treaty
China’s Defense
Deterrence
Sino-American
Relation
Relation
SDGs
Publisher
臺北市：國立臺灣大學政治學系暨研究所
Type
report
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Loading...
Name
912414H002026.pdf
Size
166.42 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum
(MD5):1462ea531f2845c5982fe0bef2e71469