The Development of the Operational Risk Analysis System for Taiwan Railways Administration
Date Issued
2010
Date
2010
Author(s)
Liu, Mu-Chien
Abstract
Taiwan Railways Administration (TRA) is one of the most important railway systems in Taiwan. In order to face the competition come from other transportation system, TRA should actively improve the operational performance of train system. The risk assessment and management of a railway system were mostly focused on the safety issue in past researches. Thus, this study provides a framework of the railway operational risk analysis system in aspect of train operation, and the framework illustrated within the case study of TRA with an accident history data.
The risk analysis system includes six modules. Firstly, train accident data module classifies and compiles the train accident historical data, and a usage of route module is used to transform the route usage under specific period of the timetable for the computation of probability of accidents. Then, the probability density functions of train accident module assume the time intervals of train accidents are valid for the exponential distribution in the aspect of reliability. According to the memoryless of exponential distribution, probability of accident is only related to the operational train-hours in a section. Next, an operational risk analysis module is utilized to calculate the expected delay of each section under a timetable, and summation of expected delay of each section is considered as the operational risk. Through the maintainability analysis module can assess the repair ability of a train system. Finally, the risk treatment selection module is introduced for the purpose of reducing the system total cost and risk. Under the premise of minimizing the system total cost, the strategy of each subsystems in defined by this study. This analysis system can evaluate the operational risk and promote the operational performance.
Subjects
Train Accidents
Operational Risk
Probability
Maintainability
Risk Treatment
Type
thesis
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Loading...
Name
ntu-99-R97521522-1.pdf
Size
23.32 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum
(MD5):497e41008d95ebc81e81e81bd5798a1f