The Cause of the Asian Crisis: Fundamentals of Contagion?
Journal
經濟論文叢刊
Journal Volume
30
Journal Issue
1
Pages
1-26
Date Issued
2002
Date
2002
Author(s)
Chen, N.K.
Chang, K.L.
Abstract
This paper examines empirically whether the Asian crisis was caused by fundamentals or contagion. We find that overvaluation of exchange rates and deterioration in fundamentals (a fragile financial sector and low foreign reserves) both contributed significantly to the occurrence of the crisis. Capital inflows and current accounts, however, do not have explanatory power. Neither pure contagion, represented by macroeconomic similarity, nor trade linkage is significant, but financial linkage does serve as a contagion channel through which a crisis is transmitted across countries.
Subjects
金融危機
基本面
傳染
financial crisis
fundamentals
contagion
Type
journal article
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