Macroeconomic Factors and Growth of the Non-Life Insurance Industry in Taiwan
Date Issued
2011
Date
2011
Author(s)
Jung, Ching
Abstract
The purpose of this thesis is to research the relation between macroeconomic factors and premium income of property and casualty（P&C）insurance market. The data come from Taiwan Insurance Institute from 1982 to 2009 and the economical statistics is from United States Department of Agriculture. Method of research is using VAR to get the relation between macroeconomic factors and premiums of all line products. The results reveal：
1.P&C premium income of next period has a positive correlation with GDP of base and prior period, current NTD exchange rate, current CPI, and growth rate of automobile for the prior period.
2.The lead-lag relationship between the first-order difference of P&C premium income and CPI. and between the first-order difference of P&C premium income and the numbers of automobile.
3.The impulse responses between the growth of GDP and P&C premium income reaches the summit in the 4th year, and between the NTD currency exchange rate and the growth of P&C premium income reaches the summit in the 2nd year.
4.The empirical result for premium income of all lines to ultimate consuming factors are as below：
（1）There is an obvious positive correlation between premium growth rate for auto & fire insurance of next period and current CPI, change rate for government expenses of prior period.
（2）There is an obvious positive correlation between premium growth rate for marine insurance of next period and CPI of the prior period, current investment and change rate for export of the prior period.
（3）There is an obvious positive correlation between premium growth rate for casualty and engineering insurance of next period and current CPI, investment of the prior period, growth rate for export of the prior period and import of the current period.
Subjects
macroeconomics factors
property and casualty insurance,
VAR
Type
thesis
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