High Speed Rail Ridership Forecast Study-Model Rebuilt and Analysis
Date Issued
2014
Date
2014
Author(s)
Lin, Wei-Ren
Abstract
With its virtues of high speed, large capacity, reduced levels of energy consumption, and pollution, high-speed rail (HSR) is emerging as an attractive transportation system. Due to the large investment burden required for HSR projects and the inefficiency of government-sponsored public construction projects, many countries are now turning to the alternative of privatizing their HSR projects. However, the private company often encounters financial deficit when the operating revenue cannot balance the cost. Taiwan high speed rail (THSR) is the largest BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) case in the world. It once declared bankrupt because of financial difficulties until the government provided funding support in 2009. Some criticisms focused on the overestimated ridership forecasts made by several consultants and institutes. However, the actual operation period is different from the planned one, which involves the changes of socioeconomic, environmental, and geographic backgrounds (such as GDP, population, and fare price). Also, the employed demand forecast models may be characterized by the experiences in other countries, which can be inapplicable in Taiwan. Hence, this study seeks to rebuild HSR ridership forecast model based on the experiences of THSR and re-examine it using actual operation data.
This model is composed of two parts, direct demand forecast model (overall inter-city travel demand), and aggregate logit model (mode split model). The parameters in both models are calibrated by using historical aggregate data and verified by real ridership data after THSR opening, showing that the prediction error of the proposed models is within 15%. The current fare price of THSR can reach the nearly best revenue, implying appropriate pricing strategies. The prediction of THSR ridership and revenue for the next 20 years are conducted based on the developed models. The results show that the three stations (Miaoli, Changhua, and Yunlin) which are currently under construction may increase 16% ridership and 11% revenue in 2021, highlighting their positive effects on future operation. However, the demand generated from each of these three stations may be lower than the one currently with the lowest demand (Chiayi). If THSR stations were built on the conventional railway stations, access time can be significantly reduced, which may lead to 55% ridership and 30% revenue increase. The reduced access time may also attract more short-distance travelers (commute trips).
Subjects
台灣高鐵
BOT
運量預測
總體資料
Type
thesis
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