Establishment of a Methodology for Evaluating the Carrying Capacity of Water Resource System under Climate Change
Date Issued
2010
Date
2010
Author(s)
Chuang, Li-Hsin
Abstract
Sustainable development aims to meet the needs of present and next generations without exceeding the carrying capacity of environment. The purpose of this study is to assess the carrying capacity of water supply system under climate change and ensure that the social and economic development and planning will not cause the overloading of water supply system in the future. First, an analysis framework for evaluating the carrying capacity of water supply system is established in this study. The framework considers hydrological conditions, tolerance of water shortage and water facilities, and shortage index(SI), deficit percent day index(DPD) and agricultural water supply index(AWS) are applied as criteria to evaluate the water shortage of water supply system. A water supply system dynamics model is established by the Vensim tool for the Touchien watershed. The results indicate that the carrying capacity of the water supply system has a decrease trend under climate change. In addition, the carrying capacity of agricultural water supply will decrease in first growing period due to the reduction of streamflow during dry period, while the carrying capacity will increase in second growing period because the increasing streamflow during wet period under climate change. Finally, the impacts of drought on streamflow irrigation area, such as the Touchien watershed, are more severely than the area irrigated by a reservoir. This study develops a seasonal forecast skill to strengthen water resources management to reduce the impacts. The forecast skill applies seasonal climate information with the lead-time of three months from Central Weather Bureau to estimate the risk of irrigation water shortage.
Subjects
Sustainable Development
Climate Change
Carrying Capacity of Water Supply
Touchien Watershed
Seasonal Forecast
Type
thesis
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