以參考一籃子貨幣為名：人民幣匯率機制之驗證

This paper uses state space modeling to investigate the evolution of China's exchange rate regime after the announced shift to a managed floating exchange rate regime with reference to a basket of currencies in July 2005, considering all the 11 currencies disclosed by Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People's Bank of China as component currencies of the RMB basket. Invariant to the choices of the numeraire and the frequency of data used for investigation, we find that the RMB basket is essentially a one currency basket of the US dollar. In view of this finding and the facts that the exchange rate of USD/RMB has been crawling upward in an on-and-off manner and at a slow yet erratic rate after the regime shift, China's new exchange rate regime can best be characterized as a discretionary crawling peg to the US dollar. This regime seems to be the optimal and logical choice for China. Since China has been generally following a gradualist approach in economic reform, and the RMB exchange rate regime greatly affects China's macroeconomic stability, economic growth, and employment; China probably will not soon adopt a managed floating exchange rate regime, let alone a freely floating exchange rate regime. © 2017, College of Management Press. All right reserved.