Transmission Dynamics of Indoor Respiratory Infection and Control Measure Modeling
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Chang, Chao-Fang
DOI
en-US
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to quantify the public health risk and to develop control measure modeling approaches concerning in containing indoor respiratory infections. Here we integrate four different types functional relationship of modified Wells-Riley mathematical model, competing-risks model, Von Foerster equation, and standard susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model to construct easy-to-use and easy-to-interpret critical control lines. We examine mathematically the impact of engineering control measures such as enhanced air exchange, ventilation filter, ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) system and personal mask combined with administrative interventions such as vaccine, isolation, contact tracing and handwashing in containing the spread of indoor respiratory infections. We demonstrate the approach with example of optimal control measures to priority respiratory infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), influenza, measles and chickenpox. We estimate that a single case of SARS will infect 2.7 secondary cases on average in a population from nosocomial transmission. We also obtain an estimate of the basic reproduction number (R0) for influenza, measles, and chickenpox in a commercial airliner: the median value is 11.7, 15.1, and 6.0 respectively. If enhanced engineering controls could reduce the R0 below 2.0 for influenza, 4.4 for measles, 0.6 for chickenpox and 0.3 for SARS, our simulations show that in such a prepared response with administrative interventions would have a high probability of containing the indoor respiratory infections. Our analysis indicates that combinations of engineering control measures and administrative interventions could effective contain influenza and chickenpox; on the other hand effective isolation of symptomatic patients with low-efficacy contact tracing is sufficient to control a SARS outbreak. We suggest that a valuable added dimension to public health interventions could be provided by systematically quantifying transmissibility and proportion of asymptomatic infection of indoor respiratory infection.
Subjects
室內呼吸性傳染疾病
基本有效再生數(R0)
數學模式
室內空氣品質
控制策略
風險
Indoor respiratory infection
Basic reproduction number
Mathematical models
Indoor air quality
Control measure
Risk
SDGs
Type
thesis
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