Evaluating vehicle fleet electrification against net-zero targets in scooter-dominated road transport

Vehicle electrification is recognized as a pathway toward net-zero emissions. However, it is unclear if the existing timeline for banning internal combustion engines is sufficient to meet the climate goal, especially for the regions where two-wheelers dominate road transport. We develop a novel bootstrap-based modeling framework to examine fleet turnover and future greenhouse gas emissions during the decarbonization transformations. With the highest scooter density globally, Taiwan is selected as a case study. The model thoroughly captures the key road characteristics, including an inverse U-shaped relationship between scooter ownership and income. Under Taiwan's 2050 Net-Zero Pathway, transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) will bring significant climate benefits but still fall short of the target. While the growing EV adoption shifts the carbon burden from transport to the power generation sector, these increased upstream emissions will eventually be counterbalanced by clean grid development following the power sector roadmap by 2050.