A Prediction Model for Bus Arrival Time and Multi-Route Travel Time
Resource
中國土木工程學報,38(12),115-123.
Journal
中國土木工程學報
Journal Volume
38
Journal Issue
12
Pages
115-123
Date Issued
2005-12
Date
2005-12
Author(s)
Zhang, Tang-Xian
Guo, Zhong-Tian
Abstract
To fulfill the different demand of passengers, this study divides the prediction model for bus arrival time into a long-term sub-model and a short-term sub-model. In building the long-term sub-model, this paper applies dynamic and stochastic mode of travel time to calculate the expectation and variance of link travel time, and uses Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to obtain a reliable function type. The delay levels of both passed and next stops one considered to obtain a robust short-term prediction model. This study also reveals that the applicable point of demarcation between the long-term and the short-term models in Taipei is 35 minutes. A trip type with transferring among multi-mutes is validated via a real case study.
Subjects
bus arrival time
fast fouriers transformation
multiple bus mutes
Type
journal article
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