The Influence of Climate Change on Typhoon Warning Days in Taiwan
Date Issued
2011
Date
2011
Author(s)
Chiou, Jr-Wei
Abstract
Climate change is an important issue. During typhoons, serious disasters, such as heavy rainfall, flood, and debris flow, often result in loss of life and property damage. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of climate change on the change of typhoon warning days. Firstly, three climate variables, sea level pressure, zonal surface wind speed and meridional surface wind speed, are collected from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data. Then, a support-vector-machine-based model is proposed to estimate the typhoon warning days. Thirdly, according to the future simulations of these three climate variables from general circulation models (GCMs) for SRES emission scenarios 20C3M, A1B, A2, and B1, the estimation of future typhoon warning days are obtained. The results indicate that three climate variables used in this study are effective for estimating typhoon warning days. As compared to models using only single climate variable, the model using all climate variables yields the best performance. In addition, the future typhoon warning days generally decrease for various scenarios regardless of sea or land warning. The results of this study are expected to be an important reference of similar studies on climate change.
Subjects
Typhoon warning day
Support vector machine
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data
General circulation model
SRES emission scenarios
SDGs
Type
thesis
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