Forecasting Demand for Tourism to Macau: Application of the Grey Theory
Date Issued
2013
Date
2013
Author(s)
Huang, Yun-Yun
Abstract
The travel and tourism industry has been making more contribution to the world’s economy and employment, especially for Macau. The Macau’s economy heavily relies on its tourism and gambling industry. Thus ,forecasting numbers of people who travel to Macau can be very helpful in planning and investing tourism industry.
Grey theory: GM (1,1) model has been applied to many fields. Its big feature is that it requires fewer information than other forecasting methods, and it still has good accuracy. However, there is no literature using grey theory to predict tourism demand to Macau. In this article, we want to find that if GM (1,1) model can do a good prediction for visitors to Macau.
We use data from January, 1997 to December,2012, collected from Macau Statistics and Census Bureau. And then we construct and use GM (1,1) model to forecast the numbers of visitors travel to Macau. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) and root mean square errors(RMSE) are adopted for evaluating the accuracy of GM(1,1) model. Finally, GM(1,1) model is compared with other forecasting models. Although GM(1,1) model is less accurate than other three models , its MAPE is less than 10%, the accuracy of GM(1,1) model is good and it does not cost too much time to predict.
Subjects
灰色理論
預測
旅遊需求
澳門
入境人次
Type
thesis
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