Installed Base Forecast of Spare Part Demand for After-sales Services
Date Issued
2014
Date
2014
Author(s)
Lu, Hsin-Yang
Abstract
While the competition in the market becomes severe, the importance of after-sales service has been much emphasized. It not only help companies to gain a deep understanding of customer’s behavior which provides a competitive advantage, but also generates a revenue stream after products are sold. Basically, after-sales services provide a warranty period to maintain the product by service parts. Since the periods of maintenance and replacements of spare parts are much longer than the product’s production periods, after the sale of a product is discontinued, there is an installed base to be serviced and there is only one final chance to stock up the part inventory. As a result, solving this end-of-life final-order inventory problem is crucial in practice.
This paper presents an empirical study of an automobile firm on this problem by applying an installed-base forecast method. Installed base model divides parts’ demand into three factors: the population of products in use, replacement probability of the failed parts and the failure rate of parts. For each part type, the failure probabilities over the life time are first estimated and a trend test is applied to the failure probability. A hybrid method is proposed by fusing the trend and end-of-life customer behavior.
At last, in order to strengthen the application of the proposed model, data from the automobile and notebook computer industries are used to validate the model which shows significant improvement over an existing method used in practice.
Subjects
售後服務零組件
最後訂購數量
Installed base
失效機率
趨勢判斷
Type
thesis
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