Construction Project Progress Curve Forecasting Model: Change-Orders concerned
Date Issued
2006
Date
2006
Author(s)
Tang, Yen-Chun
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
There are two main topic of construction project management in the construction phase: schedule & cost monitoring and control. In the Earn Value Management System (EVMS), cumulative progress curve could be used to describe: a comparation with plan. We can get the project’s schedule and cost performance by performance indexes or indicators like SPI, CPI, SV, CV. If the earned value is under the planned value, it indicates the project’s progress behind to the present. In many contracts, SPI / SV are regulated to surpass 0.9 / -0.1, otherwise, the contractor may be punish. Howerver, the schedule arrangement will be diverse even if the same project is planned or inspected by different people. The performance indexes mostly are only static, one point, and to-the-present estimators which are poor to forecast the project’s progress in the future. Therefore, the practitioners need to know: according to the contractor’s schedule performance in the recently, how to forecast the schedule trend in the future. Before the project’s schedule monitoring and control fail, they can take corrective actions in time via the believable and rational forecast. It is important to forecast real-time and dynamic in the schedule monitoring, and then to control process for construction project in the construction phase.
In the related works, some review many projects’ progress curve ex post facto, and anticipate to feedback to the new projects’ schedule planning and cash flow management; others only use simple linear regresstion or grey theory to forecast SPI or other indicators. And that, they seldom mention the fact of the construction project usually has change-orders. This study will mention the change-orders fact first, discuss how the progress curve changes when change-orders happened. Then this study will compare the models and methods mostly used for progress curve fitting via case study, such as 3-order polynomial functionl, Kenley-Wilson formula, Pearl curve, and so on. Case study are limited to new building construction project with detail planned value and earned value. This study will then estabilish Construction Project Progress Curve Forecasting Model—concerned about change-orders.
The model has three main applications: (1) How will the planned value change after project has change-orders, (2) Earned value forecasting no matter project has change-orders or not, (3) Schedule trend in the future according to the contractor’s schedule performance in the recently. The practitioners may take corrective actions in time via the model’s results suggestion.
Subjects
進度管控, 進度預測, 變更設計, 工程專案管理
schedule monitoring and control, schedule forecasting, change-orders, construction project management
Type
thesis