Multifractal Analysis of Earthquakes Inter-arrival Time
Date Issued
2008
Date
2008
Author(s)
Tang, Gao-Wen
Abstract
Taiwan is located on the Circum-Pacific Ocean Seismic Zone, where earthquakes happen frequently, and sometimes accompany drastic earthquakes. After 921-earthquake, Taiwanese people experienced the destructive consequences caused by a drastic earthquake. Therefore, the researches of prevention and reduction of the damages of earthquakes are so urgent that there is no time for waiting. In the past twenty years, the development of fractal theory has become mature, and many research reports have indicated that time-series in nature exhibits multifractal behaviors. Earthquakes also possess these properties. The purpose of this study aims at using the fractal method to analyze the time-series of seismic activities, with attention focused on the finding of any precursor before the major earthquake arrives. In this study, we analyzed the interarrival-time between seismic events with size over 4 in the period from Jan. 1990 to Dec. 2003 in Taiwan area. We first transformed the data into a time-sequence, and then calculated the Hölder exponent of the sequence to study the changes in the frequency of seismic activities. Our results showed that the Hölder exponents will display a drastic fluctuation before the major earthquake arrives. There are also some significant changes in the multifarctal spectra of the sequence in this time span. These changes can serve as precursors of the oncoming of major earthquakes; they also provide important information to the future improvement of earthquake forecast.
Subjects
earthquake
fractal
multifractal
time-sequence
Type
thesis
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